The red flag in the closing stages of Saturday's INDYCAR race at Detroit created some debate on whether the sanctioning body should throw out the red flag to prevent a race from finishing under caution. This happened only a week after Formula One's Azerbaijan Grand Prix where similarly a red flag was thrown out to prevent the race finishing under caution.
On one hand, it's a fair argument to say that a caution doesn't warrant a red flag at any other stage in the race. On the other hand, many fans want to see the race finishing under green conditions.
NASCAR's solution to get an attempt at a green-flag finish is the overtime, i.e. green-white-checker, possibly going beyond the advertised race distance. One particular issue with this is some cars possibly running out of the fuel after the restart, which is why I don't think open-wheel racing should adopt this rule.
That being said, I'm still in favor of INDYCAR and F1 throwing out the red flag in order to get an attempt at a green-flag finish. But my issue with that practice is the lack of consistency. Sometimes you see a late-race red flag whereas sometimes in similar circumstances the race control just lets the race run out of laps behind the pace car.
What I'd like to see is a clear rule for late-race cautions bringing out the red flag. Of course, sometimes it's too late to throw out the red flag as you'll need a lap to bring the field into the pit road and another one to lead the field to the start-finish line for the restart. If it's an oval, I think you'd need at least two laps after the restart to justify the red flag. On a road or street course, I think one lap would be enough because of the longer lap times. Either way, the red flag should come with more than three laps (road or street courses) or four laps (ovals) remaining.
The other thing is how late in the race it should be to throw out the red flag under caution. Even a quick full-course yellow will likely take at least three laps, more likely four or five, and even more on a short oval. So basically you should red-flag a race if caution comes out with less than six or seven laps remaining, or maybe even ten laps on an oval.
Anyway, here's what I think what the rules for late-race cautions should look like:
If the race goes under caution with less than 7 laps (road or street course) or 10 laps (oval) remaining, it will be red-flagged and restarted (if the track can be cleared in a timely manner).
If the race goes under caution with less than 3 laps (road or street
course) or 4 laps (oval) remaining, it will not be red-flagged (and likely finish under caution).
Of course, the argument for cautions earlier in the race not bringing out the red flag stands. However, you can take those earlier cautions into account in your strategy. Just like a finish under caution could bail out a driver low on fuel, an earlier caution may put him inside the fuel window. However, even those with more fuel can use those earlier cautions in their favor by needing shorter pit stops and shortening the remaining tire stints. On the other hand, a late-race caution may deny the final attack by the driver with more fuel and fresher tires. And besides that, finishing under caution when it's preventable is a bad look for the sport. There just needs to be transparent rules to make the policy consistent.
What made Detroit's late-race red flag even more controversial was an overheated ECU denying the race leader Will Power a chance to go for the win at the restart. However, the problem in that case was not the red flag but the rules preventing the mechanics from placing fans to cool down the leader's car while the field was still lining up on the pit road. While I think INDYCAR made the right decision to red-flag the race, the rules should be revised to prevent mechanical failures from the red flag procedure.
The frustration of INDYCAR's international fan base about not being able to watch the Indianapolis 500 practice sessions (in official ways) has made me think about the future of INDYCAR's international broadcasting. In this text I will explain why I think an international streaming platform operated by INDYCAR's American broadcasting partner would be the best solution.
In the USA, a traditional TV-based broadcasting model is still very much a must for INDYCAR. Free-to-air coverage, like the Indy 500 and seven other races get, is still the best display window for the sport despite streaming platforms challenging the linear television.
However, INDYCAR is unlikely to get free-to-air coverage almost everywhere outside the States. It may get some occasional new viewers on the pay-per-view sports channels it is on, however the cost of those pay channels also prevents some fans from watching the series. Also, there are even countries where there are no (official) ways to watch INDYCAR. A (reasonably-priced) international streaming platform would enable reaching those fans INDYCAR has overseas.
It might not make sense for INDYCAR to set up their own international streaming platform, especially as they couldn't use it in America where their biggest following is. INDYCAR needs a mainstream broadcasting partner in the USA; they couldn't reach a similar audience there by only streaming the races.
The most sensible solution might be selling the international streaming rights together with the American rights. The American broadcaster would be mandated to offer an all-inclusive streaming package outside the USA. It shouldn't be too difficult for the American broadcaster to offer the international streaming. They are already producing the coverage and they already have the technology for a streaming platform. All they'd have to do is to monetize the international interest in INDYCAR.
I'd see this as an ideal solution for the international broadcasting of INDYCAR. This way fans from around the world could enjoy all the content the American broadcaster offers to the American fans. Given Indy car racing's overseas status as a niche sport, hardly any international broadcaster is going to put as much effort into their INDYCAR coverage as the American broadcaster does.
Of course, TV coverage can still help to reach new viewers who wouldn't subscribe to a streaming service. Also, local broadcasters can provide commentary in local languages as opposed to an international stream in English. Even if there was a streaming package, INDYCAR should still look for overseas TV partners. A streaming package doesn't necessarily rule out TV deals. As an example, the ATP Tour, where INDYCAR's CEO Mark Miles has a background, has its Tennis TV streaming package available globally. That still doesn't stop the ATP making local broadcasting deals with TV networks, many of which are also offering their own streaming services.
The schedule for the 2019 INDYCAR season has been released. The biggest changes from 2018 are Circuit of The Americas replacing ISM Raceway as the second round of the championship and WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca replacing Sonoma Raceway as the season finale. Minor changes include the race at Barber Motorsports Park taking place two weeks earlier and Iowa Speedway's new date two weeks later in Saturday night.
First visit to COTA for INDYCAR
The decision not to continue INDYCAR racing at Phoenix left an opening in the schedule which is filled by Circuit of The Americas, the venue of Formula One's United States Grand Prix. The race in Austin became possible after Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth was no longer granted territorial exclusivity in the state of Texas.
The 3.4-mile track of COTA is arguably the most modern road course in the USA. The track has been well-received in F1 with a layout consisting of some flowing turns, long straights providing passing opportunities, and some elevation changes.
Being built to meet F1's safety standards, COTA has big paved runoffs, which will be different from the other INDYCAR road courses. When most other road courses in America have clear physical track limits, IMSA had trouble in policing the track limits in its races at COTA. Hopefully that will not cause too many problems in the INDYCAR race.
COTA doesn't have a great record in hosting other series than F1 and MotoGP. The track hosted both IMSA and the FIA WEC, originally as a doubleheader, then as separate events in 2017. Poor attendance led to both series leaving the venue for the 2018 season.
INDYCAR has struggled to draw a big crowd at many NASCAR venues, Phoenix which got replaced by COTA as an example. I think going to an F1 venue has the same risk; there is a bigger event than INDYCAR at COTA. However, Pocono Raceway has shown you can get a decent crowd for INDYCAR even at venues with bigger events. Hopefully COTA will do good job with promotion to get a good crowd for INDYCAR. At least it's a venue located next to a big city like Austin.
Laguna Seca replaces Sonoma
Following the announcement of WeatherTech Raceway Laguna Seca being included in the 2019 INDYCAR schedule, another Northern California venue Sonoma Raceway chose not to pursue an extension for its race which had been in the schedule every year since 2005. Like Sonoma until this year, Laguna Seca will host the championship finale.
Sonoma was often criticized for the difficulty of passing. Laguna Seca may not be much better even though it's one of the most famous road courses in America with a long Indy car history. Sonoma was a fine location for sponsors with wineries nearby the track, though the attendance for INDYCAR races was never great. At Sonoma, INDYCAR faced competition from NASCAR and NHRA. On the other hand, INDYCAR will arguably be the biggest racing event at Laguna Seca which also hosts IMSA and the World Superbike Championship.
Time will tell if INDYCAR draws a bigger crowd at Laguna Seca than it's drawn at Sonoma. Though the success of returning old events at venues like Gateway Motorsports Park and Portland International Raceway has shown INDYCAR tends to draw bigger crowds at non-NASCAR Cup Series venues.
Big gaps in the schedule
Even though the INDYCAR schedule is barely six months long, it's had some big gaps and in 2019 there will be even more big gaps.
With COTA added to late March and Barber taking the old Phoenix date, there will not be a four-week gap after the season opener of St. Petersburg like there was in recent years. However, there will be a four-week gap between Long Beach and the Indianapolis road course. I still think it's better this way; you get the season started with a streak of races, then you have a break before five consecutive weeks of racing or qualifying at Indy, Detroit, and Texas.
The change to Saturday night required Iowa Speedway's date to be pushed back by two weeks to avoid a conflict on TV with Saturday night NASCAR racing. With Road America and Toronto keeping their dates from 2018, there will be a three-week gap between those races.
As Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course keeps its date from 2018, it means there will be three consecutive weeks of racing with Toronto and Iowa in the previous weeks. INDYCAR and Mid-Ohio probably didn't want to push the race back by one week, even though there will still be a three-week gap between Mid-Ohio and the following race at Pocono.
The season will finish one week later in 2019 than it does in 2018. Portland keeps the Labor Day weekend date from 2018 and the following weekend is probably out of question for INDYCAR because of the Brickyard NASCAR weekend. With IMSA scheduled for Laguna Seca two weeks after the Portland INDYCAR race, INDYCAR needs to wait one more week for the season finale.
I hope INDYCAR can find additional races or rearrange the existing ones to fill some of those gaps in the future schedules. I assume Barber will return to its usual date when it doesn't fall into the Easter weekend, shortening the gap before Indianapolis. Then again, there would still be some space in the early season. If Mexico became an option again, it would logistically make sense to have it after Austin.
The breaks in early July and early August call for a new race. Richmond Raceway was apparently a strong candidate to be included in the 2019 schedule. With NASCAR races in April and September, either July or August would seem like a suitable INDYCAR date for Richmond. With only five oval races in the 17-race 2019 schedule, it would be good to see the number of ovals increased in the future.
The gap before Laguna Seca is the one I like the least. Three weeks between the last two races is a giant momentum killer. As an INDYCAR-IMSA doubleheader at Laguna Seca is probably out of question, just swapping the two series at the venue's schedule would seem like an obvious solution to shorten the gap after Portland. Another option would be adding a new race. With Chicagoland Speedway's NASCAR weekend moved to midsummer and Kentucky Speedway having lost its standalone Xfinity Series fall race, those two oval venues close to INDYCAR's Midwestern fanbase might have space in their schedule in early September.
As for potential future overseas races, it would be hard to fit any races in the northern hemisphere in the current schedule as you'd need at least one off-weekend to freight the cars overseas and another off-weekend to freight them back to America. Unless Barber kept its date from 2019 into the future seasons, you'd need to rearrange the schedule to open space for overseas races.
Fernando Alonso's announcement to leave Formula One after the current season has heated up the speculation about his plans for 2019. While he will finish the FIA World Endurance Championship season with Toyota Gazoo Racing in the first half of 2019, the dates of those races probably wouldn't prevent him from doing the full season in the Verizon IndyCar Series.
Alonso racing in the 103rd Running of the Indianapolis 500 next May feels like a no-brainer. He wants to complete the Triple Crown of Indianapolis 500, 24 Hours of Le Mans, and Monaco Grand Prix victories, and it's only the Indy 500 win he's missing. He already had an impressive debut at Indy in 2017 and getting a seat for the 500 next year shouldn't be a problem for him. There are surely teams that want to run him, and although Alonso has been one of the best-paid drivers in F1, money should only be a secondary consideration when he's aiming for such a special achievement.
Might Alonso join INDYCAR full-time?
But as Alonso is leaving F1 and has only three WEC races in 2019 in his Toyota contract, might he be joining the Verizon IndyCar Series full-time? I think this is where money may come into question.
Alonso's goal in INDYCAR is to win the Indy 500. His Indy debut showed he doesn't need to run races before Indy to be competitive in the 500. Of course, he could go for the series championship if he did the full INDYCAR season, though I'm not sure how high that is among his priorities. If a Verizon IndyCar Series championship was such a big goal for him, I might have imagined him leaving F1 for INDYCAR already after the last year when it already seemed like he isn't getting into winning machinery in F1.
If Alonso joins INDYCAR full-time, I don't think it will happen on the cheap. A two-time F1 World Champion surely knows his value. Probably every team in the INDYCAR paddock would like a driver of Alonso's caliber but which teams can afford him?
If Alonso does the full season, I think it will be in the possible McLaren entry in a partnership with an existing team. If McLaren enters INDYCAR, Alonso would surely be their first choice to drive their entry. In 2017, McLaren partnered with Andretti Autosport to run Alonso at Indy. However, Andretti already has contracts with three of their current four full-time drivers, Alexander Rossi, Ryan Hunter-Reay, and Zach Veach. Would Michael Andretti drop his son Marco from the team's lineup to make space for Alonso?
Another potential issue with a McLaren-Andretti partnership is the Honda engines. Honda already supplies engines to more cars than the other manufacturer, Chevrolet, does. That might prevent Andretti adding a fifth Honda-powered car to their lineup. Also, any team running Alonso might ask the engine manufacturer to foot Alonso's salary. Following McLaren's criticism of the poor performance of the Japanese manufacturer's F1 power units, Honda may not be willing to be associated with McLaren's INDYCAR program. Besides, Alonso is driving for Honda's arch rival Toyota in the WEC. It's not even obvious Toyota would let him race in a Honda-powered Indy car.
There are rumors about Harding Racing becoming Andretti's satellite team. That might be a solution if Honda engines would be a problem in a McLaren-Andretti partnership as Harding is using Chevy power. Harding has not set the world on fire in their first full Verizon IndyCar Series season, though maybe a partnership with Andretti and McLaren would strengthen their engineering department to give Alonso a car to contend for wins. After the miserable last few seasons in F1, Alonso surely wants to get into a winning car if he joins INDYCAR.
As for other teams in the Chevy camp, Ed Carpenter Racing has usually been strong at the 500. That might be an option, especially if Alonso and McLaren are doing only the 500, not the full season. Though, whether it's drivers or the team, ECR has not made the podium on road and street courses ever since Josef Newgarden left the team. ECR may not be the best team for Alonso and McLaren to aim for the series championship.
Team Penske might be team that could best afford running Alonso, even without a partnership with McLaren. Though Roger Penske all but ruled out running Tony Stewart in the 500 as they already have four cars for next year. That sounds like the team will retain Simon Pagenaud whose contract expires after the current season. Or might they already have a contract in place with Alonso?
That being said, I wouldn't even be sure about Penske willing to run McLaren's INDYCAR program. McLaren's plan is to start with an existing team, then switch to operating the team independently. Team Penske probably already has their hands full with their existing programs and have sponsors for their cars; why would Penske jump-start a potential future rival's INDYCAR program?
Of course, McLaren doesn't have endlessly time to finalize the INDYCAR program for 2019. Their lead program in F1 isn't delivering the expected results. Can McLaren in their current situation expand their racing activities to INDYCAR? If not, then I'm not sure we'll see Alonso racing full-time in INDYCAR.
Is WEC an option beyond current season?
If Alonso doesn't join INDYCAR full-time in 2019, he'll have quite an open schedule for the year. Even if he did the Indy 500, he'd only have four races in his schedule, all before July. Might a WEC contract extension with Toyota be a possibility?
Alonso joined Toyota's WEC program with the goal of winning the Le Mans as the second leg of the Triple Crown. He is also leading the WEC points standings with his No. 8 Toyota having beaten the No. 7 sister car in both two races this season. If he goes and wins the World Endurance Drivers' Championship, he will have achieved the two most important titles in the series.
With the Le Mans win now on his resume, winning the Indy 500 must be Alonso's big goal. But it doesn't rule out staying in the WEC. As long as it's fine for the WEC team, Alonso can do the 500 as a part-time entry and be competitive. If Toyota offered Alonso more money for a contract extension than any INDYCAR team can afford, I wouldn't be surprised to see him staying in the WEC and doing only the 500 in INDYCAR. Combining full INDYCAR and WEC seasons may not be possible because of possible date clashes, like Pocono and Silverstone this year. And even if it was, I'm not sure Alonso wants to commit to such a heavy schedule for another season.
The winter schedule of the WEC might still be problematic for Alonso. With the season finishing in June, there might be schedule clashes if he was to join another series with a calendar-year schedule. That wouldn't likely be a problem with INDYCAR next year, however. Though if Alonso is eyeing an F1 comeback, that might be problematic.
Might Alonso make an F1 comeback?
It feels like the lack of a competitive seat and the chase of the Indy 500 win were the reasons for Alonso to leave F1. At the age of 37, he's the second-oldest active F1 driver. However, one can't say he's too old for an F1 comeback. F1 is just an environment where drivers are brought in early and pushed out early. You can still stay or even return as long as you can show you're worthy of a seat.
Despite his decision to leave F1 after the current season, I wouldn't be too surprised if he jumped at the opportunity to make a comeback in a winning team. I think the fact that he stayed in F1 for another season after his Indy debut shows he still had ambitions in F1. The decision to leave F1 feels more like a realization he can't reach his ambitions in the current circumstances. If he could get back into a competitive car, I wouldn't be surprised to see him back in F1.
For sure, Alonso wants to win the Indy 500. But he's still got at least a decade to go for it. He can return to F1, and still return again to Indy in his hunt of the 500 win. Bobby Unser and Al Unser Sr. were 47 at the time of their last 500 wins, 1981 and 1987 respectively. Even in today's INDYCAR, drivers in their 40s can have success.
Are INDYCAR and WEC Alonso's only options?
When thinking about Fernando Alonso's options for 2019 beyond completing the WEC season with Toyota, running at the Indy 500 feels rather likely. A full Verizon IndyCar Series season is surely a possibility, and also staying in the WEC feels possible.
Beyond INDYCAR and the WEC, the only other option I might imagine for Alonso is Formula E with its increasing manufacturer involvement. Formula E may not take him towards the goal of winning the Indy 500, though maybe some manufacturer might like to spend some big money on attracting a star driver. With a winter schedule like the WEC, Alonso could join Formula E for a new season after he's finished the WEC season. However, unless the Formula E schedule was changed from the previous years, it might clash with the Indy 500 or at least the 500 practice and qualifications.
Personally, I hope Alonso joins INDYCAR full-time in a pursuit of not only the 500 win but also the series championship. That would send a message to other F1 drivers and fans that there's more to motorsports than just F1. INDYCAR has a product that should appeal to F1 fans; a familiar name should bring F1 fans watching INDYCAR. If Alonso did the full season, the fans that tune in to see him racing would see all sides of INDYCAR; not only the high-speed oval of Indianapolis but also the fast road courses like Road America, rough street courses like Detroit, and short ovals like the bullring of Iowa.
INDYCAR and NBC Sports Group have announced a three-year broadcasting contract, bringing the entire Verizon IndyCar Series to NBC's platforms. The new contract will end the split coverage between ABC and NBCSN, the first of which had covered the Indianapolis 500 ever since 1965.
Under the new contract, NBC will broadcast eight races, including the Indy 500, free-to-air as opposed to five under the previous contract with ABC. According to an AP article, NBC will also broadcast the 500 qualifications free-to-air, like ABC has done. The rest of the races will be broadcast on NBC Sports Network on cable, and all races will be live streamed to authenticated subscribers on NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app.
In addition to the coverage on NBC and NBCSN, NBC Sports Gold will offer a streaming package including the practice and qualifying sessions not shown live on TV as well as the Indy Lights races and full-event replays.
NBC becoming the sole broadcaster of INDYCAR is positive for a number of reasons. First of all, it will end the confusing split between two broadcasters. For example, the upcoming schedule shown in ABC's telecast from the season opener in St. Petersburg excluded the upcoming three races shown on NBCSN and listed only the Month of May shown on ABC.
Secondly, NBC has done superior work with their cable broadcasts compared to ABC's broadcasts. NBC's commentators have done better job than their colleagues on ABC and as have also NBC's TV directors. Not only that but they have also reserved more time for the pre- and postrace coverage on NBCSN and have even televised some practice and qualifying sessions unlike ABC.
Most importantly, NBC seems more committed to covering INDYCAR than ABC and ESPN have been. I can't watch the American broadcasters here in Finland but as far as I know, ABC has done little to promote their INDYCAR coverage. For example, during the season-opening St. Petersburg weekend, I couldn't see any mention about INDYCAR on ABC or ESPN's Twitter accounts. On the other hand, NBC provided updates also from that race despite not broadcasting it.
NBCSN has grown the audience of its INDYCAR cable broadcasts by 78 percent since 2013. Meanwhile the growth of INDYCAR's free-to-air audience has stalled on ABC and the Indy 500 earned its lowest TV rating ever last year. It was time to move away from ABC.
I believe NBC can take the INDYCAR coverage to a new level. Not only their broadcasts have been superior to ABC's but they also appear to be more committed to covering the sport. ABC and ESPN have done little to cover the series besides fulfilling the broadcasting commitments as opposed to NBC whose motorsports department provides updates from the sport also between the races.
The increased number of races that will be shown free-to-air will increase the reach of the series and is also a promising sign of the state of INDYCAR. The Indy 500 will be a part of NBC's Championship Season alongside other sports' marquee events and should get the attention it deserves. NBC has already revived the Kentucky Derby's TV ratings after years of decline on ABC. The 500 is in a similar situation now, going from ABC to NBC.
As opposed to the previous six-year contract with ABC and ten-year contract with NBCSN (previously Versus), this new NBC contract is only three years. I think having a short contract now can be a good thing for INDYCAR as the media landscape is undergoing some big changes. Also, there are so many positive things around INDYCAR now that in three years the series can be in an even better position for the contract negotiations.
NBC Sports Gold complements coverage but doesn't replace cable yet
What is new in the new broadcasting contract is NBC's coverage from all practice and qualifying sessions on NBC Sports Gold. That will apparently be the end of the free streaming of those sessions on YouTube, though the wording of the announcement implies some of them may possibly be televised. The NBC Sports Gold package will also include full-event replays, which I hope won't be the end of race uploads on YouTube. That would be a step backwards, especially when also NASCAR uploads their races to YouTube.
This NBC Sports Gold package is probably NBC and INDYCAR dipping their toes into over-the-top offering, though mostly this is NBC offering the content that doesn't fit their TV channels' programming. This package still doesn't answer the demand to offer an alternative for cable subscription, like MotoGP does with the Videopass and now also F1 with the F1 TV OTT service.
Over-the-top services are challenging the traditional business model of sports broadcasters. People don't want to pay for cable channels if there is a less expensive way to watch exactly what they want to see. There are surely fans without a cable subscription who would subscribe to an all-inclusive INDYCAR OTT package. Then again, even a cable channel can be a great display window for INDYCAR to reach those people who wouldn't subscribe to the OTT package. Last year NBCSN reached 71 percent of American households, though the trend of cord cutting may bring that number down considerably in the near future.
The way I see the future of INDYCAR broadcasting, broadcast television will remain an effective media long into the future to reach and gain fans. It's important to have a high number of races shown free-to-air. Though the increasing rate of cord cutting will reduce the potential reach of the cable broadcasts. After this new contract will have expired in 2021, I hope INDYCAR will offer an all-inclusive OTT package to reach those fans without a cable subscription, instead of losing them to F1 and other series which have one.
For an OTT service, I think a platform like NBC Sports Gold would be better for INDYCAR than an own service. Using an existing platform wouldn't require investing in an own platform and the OTT package could be integrated in the broadcaster's INDYCAR offering. Being affiliated with a broadcaster has certain valuable benefits, like the coverage across the broadcaster's different platforms and cross-promotion in other programming.
Of course, it may be difficult to convince a broadcaster offering an OTT alternative for the cable subscription. The OTT offering for 2019 is still protecting the traditional business model where you need a cable subscription to see the races on NBCSN. However, that model may not have much life left; people will find something alternative to watch. Broadcasters are missing potential customers by not offering OTT packages specific to certain content. Starting to offer that kind of packages could be the traditional broadcasters' response to the new OTT services. Besides, in INDYCAR's case, an all-inclusive OTT package could also open new possibilities as that broadcaster's platform could also be used for the international streaming.
What will happen with international TV rights?
Just like the current national broadcasting contract with ABC and NBCSN expires at the end of this year, so does also the international broadcasting contract with ESPN International. ESPN International has shown INDYCAR on their local channels around the world or distributed the rights to third parties plus. ESPN Player has offered streaming of the races in Europe, Middle East, and Africa apart from certain regions with local broadcasters.
NBC Sports Gold offers some packages also for overseas viewers so that could be an international streaming platform if the American OTT package were expanded with race coverage. However, compared to ESPN, NBCUniversal doesn't have appropriate TV channels for INDYCAR outside the USA so it seems unlikely for the international broadcasting partner, unless they acquired those rights only for redistributing them and offering NBC Sports Gold for streaming.
Although ESPN and ABC won't broadcast INDYCAR in the USA after this year, ESPN International may still be a strong candidate for the international broadcasting partner. ESPN's numerous international channels show also sports they have no broadcasting rights in the USA.
However, I think there's lots of room for improvement in ESPN International's INDYCAR coverage. ESPN Player hasn't shown the pre- or postrace coverage of the NBCSN broadcasts, neither have they shown those practice or qualifying sessions that were on NBCSN and thus not in YouTube. Whatever broadcaster INDYCAR chooses as the international distributor, I hope they will be required to show all sessions of the race weekends, preferably including NBC's pre- and postrace coverage or offering their own.
I'm not sure selling the international broadcasting rights to a single distributor is ideal for INDYCAR. INDYCAR has no control over which channels the distributor will sell the regional rights to. A third party selling the TV rights isn't thinking about the growth of the sport the way INDYCAR is.
When I think about appropriate overseas broadcasters, BT Sport is doing great job in the UK. Their broadcasting rights obviously come from their affiliation with ESPN, though regardless of the international broadcasting partner, they would be a great broadcaster for INDYCAR also in the upcoming seasons. BT Sport isn't just broadcasting the world feed, instead they have British commentators on air when their American colleagues are on a commercial break. If anything, simulcasting the BT Sport broadcast would be ideal for any broadcaster with no commercial breaks.
When I think about Europe in general, I'd like to see Eurosport broadcasting INDYCAR like they did in the CART era. They already have series like Formula E, FIA WEC, WorldSBK, and WTCR, so INDYCAR could complement Eurosports motorsports offering. In addition to their two main channels, Eurosport Player allows additional streams for other live events. If the races were shown on the main channel, Eurosport Player's additional channels could stream the practice and qualifying sessions.
Besides, Eurosport's parent Discovery owns free-to-air channels across Europe which were used to fulfill the local free-to-air requirements of the Olympic coverage. Here in Finland, Discovery uses those channels also to show tennis' Grand Slam finals in addition to the full coverage on Eurosport, and I think they might do the same with the Indy 500. And while Eurosport is available across Europe, they have somewhat different programming in different countries, depending on the local TV rights. INDYCAR could sell the British TV rights to BT Sport while the rest of Europe could watch it on Eurosport.
Those are just some potential European broadcasters for INDYCAR. I think it would be better for the series to sell the TV rights directly to broadcasters, instead of selling them to a global distributor.
The Verizon IndyCar Series is currently having a break of almost four weeks between the season-opening Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg and the second race of the season, the Phoenix Grand Prix at ISM Raceway. The long break after the season has just started is unfortunate for the fans and many people would like to see a race added to late March to bridge that gap.
Before speculating on additions to the Verizon IndyCar Series schedule, let's have a look at how the current events might be placed in the upcoming schedules. I have included the next three years because of the moving public holiday dates. I have also made some changes to avoid clashes with some big TV events. I have included those other sports events and public holidays into the table. Announced and known dates are bolded.
Click to enlarge
April has stable events. And Phoenix
The Toyota Grand Prix of Long Beach and the Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama are stable INDYCAR events in April and one can expect those races to return close to their current dates in the upcoming seasons. On the other hand, the two races since INDYCAR returned to ISM Raceway in Phoenix have not drawn a great crowd, creating uncertainty around the future of the event.
The usual date for Long Beach is one week after golf's Masters Tournament, and that is a very stable date given the event's importance for the Verizon IndyCar Series. However, last year the event was brought forward by a week because of Easter, with the race taking place opposite to the final round of the Masters.
A Sunday afternoon race opposite to the Masters doesn't really make sense; that is a TV slot INDYCAR should try to avoid. In 2019 Long Beach may again need to be brought forward to avoid the Easter weekend, though it would make more sense to bring it forward by two weeks into the Sunday of the NCAA Basketball Final Four. While the Final Four weekend is difficult for other sports on TV, women's championship game on Sunday doesn't draw such a big audience as the men's games on Saturday and Monday.
While a Sunday afternoon race makes little sense opposite to the Masters, that is a good weekend for a Saturday night race after the third round has finished at Augusta National. That is exactly what INDYCAR has this year with the Phoenix Grand Prix, and I think that should become the permanent date for the race in the upcoming seasons, back-to-back with Long Beach, another race in the West.
However, there are years when the Masters weekend is also the Easter weekend, like 2020. If the Phoenix date was brought forward by a week, it would be in the Final Four weekend. A Saturday night race opposite to the men's semifinals doesn't make sense. The race in the Final Four weekend should rather be a Sunday afternoon race opposite to the less-viewed women's championship game.
Depending on the year, Barber Motorsports Park usually hosts INDYCAR two or three weeks before the INDYCAR Grand Prix at the IMS road course. The date of NASCAR's spring weekend at Talladega very much dictates Barber's INDYCAR date because it makes no sense to have two races in the same weekend just over 30 miles apart from each other.
What could be the possible additions to the early season?
It would be difficult to fit races outside North America into the schedule after St. Petersburg, especially if INDYCAR returns to Phoenix also in the upcoming seasons. Those overseas races would probably take place before St. Pete, still leaving the gap between St. Pete and the following race.
There are not so many venues in North America for which March would be an ideal time to host INDYCAR. With INDYCAR at St. Pete and IMSA at Sebring, there may already be too much racing in Florida to add Homestead-Miami Speedway to the INDYCAR schedule. The same can be said about Southern California. With NASCAR at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana in mid-March and INDYCAR at Long Beach in early April, an INDYCAR return to Fontana in late March may be out of question. Teams have been testing at Sonoma Raceway during the winter, though a date change to March would make no sense for Sonoma when the temperature hardly reaches 70 °F and there's a greater risk of rain.
While some people would like to see the Verizon IndyCar Series visiting Circuit of The Americas which hosts Pirelli World Challenge two weeks after St. Pete, I don't think INDYCAR should go there and risk its relationship with Texas Motor Speedway, the longest-standing oval venue in the series apart from Indianapolis. I don't think venues with other big events, like COTA with Formula One and MotoGP, necessarily have much potential for INDYCAR. Besides, the track president Bobby Epstein has stated the MotoGP date in April limits the opportunities for INDYCAR in the spring.
Mexico City would seem like the potential new race to fill the late-March gap. While an international race, it would still allow a quick transportation of the equipment when the following race might be just a week later in the Western USA. The climate in Mexico City would allow a race at almost any part of the schedule, though late-March is where that race would be needed the most. With some uncertainty around the future of Phoenix, INDYCAR really needs to find a new race for that part of the season. Even if Mexico City was only a replacement for Phoenix, it would offer more flexibility as the NASCAR schedule wouldn't set any constraints.
June has a stable schedule
After the Indy 500 and the other events at Indianapolis Motor Speedway have taken the May, INDYCAR has a stable schedule for June. The Chevrolet Dual in Detroit is the first weekend after the 500, Texas Motor Speedway has its preferred date two weeks after the 500, and after a Father's Day break INDYCAR goes to Road America. The Father's Day break is well-needed as the teams have been racing (or qualifying for the 500) for five consecutive weeks. The break also allows the drivers to participate in the 24 Hours of Le Mans, and the Father's Day weekend with golf's U.S. Open might be a difficult one for TV ratings.
After the Verizon IndyCar Series' successful return to Road America, one can expect it to become a permanent fixture in the schedule. The long INDYCAR traditions and the improved attendance of last few years allow us to expect TMS returning also in the upcoming seasons. Detroit is the only question mark because of the local opposition for closing parts of the park in Belle Isle for the event. Though as long as the park is available for the street races, one can expect General Motors and Roger Penske to ensure Detroit hosts the first INDYCAR weekend after the 500.
INDYCAR needs to avoid NASCAR clashes on NBC from July
The full Verizon IndyCar Series is set to be broadcast on NBC's channels from 2019. Avoiding NASCAR's TV slots is important for INDYCAR, even more from July onwards when NBC starts broadcasting NASCAR's Monster Energy Cup and Xfinity Series.
Whenever NASCAR has a Cup race in Saturday night, that means INDYCAR can have a Sunday afternoon race with no competition from NASCAR. The weekend of NASCAR's Bristol night race has worked well for INDYCAR's Pocono race.
Last two years, Honda Indy Toronto was shown live on CNBC while a tape delayed broadcast was shown on NBCSN after the live coverage from a NASCAR race. This year Toronto won't clash with a NASCAR race since it's in the weekend of the Kentucky night race.
Iowa Speedway used to host a Saturday night race until its date was changed to NASCAR's Kentucky weekend, denying the Saturday night TV slot. This year Iowa is again a Sunday afternoon race as the Saturday night of the weekend has NASCAR's Coke Zero 400.
I think it would be sensible to tie Toronto's date to NASCAR's Kentucky weekend. That would give it a date with no competition from NASCAR. Iowa should be moved to the weekend after Toronto when NASCAR has afternoon races and Iowa could become a night race again.
The 2020 Olympics in Tokyo will have less effect on broadcasting than the 2016 Games in Rio. While the Rio Olympics took the afternoon and evening TV slots, the Tokyo Olympics will start in the prime time and continue into the night. Mid-Ohio's date would be during the Olympics, which should not be a problem for an afternoon race. Of course, NBC broadcasts the Olympics in the USA and may want to use all its resources for the Olympic coverage. Though that wouldn't be a problem if IMS Productions produce the coverage under the new broadcasting contract.
In 2019, NASCAR's Bristol night race will likely take place only one week before the Bojangles' Southern 500 in the Labor Day weekend, a weekend currently with no Cup Series race. That will likely force a date change for INDYCAR at Gateway Motorsports Park, unless it became a Sunday afternoon race. Assuming Gateway will be the weekend before Pocono in 2019, it might make sense to keep that calendar slot also for the upcoming seasons, to close the early-August gap in the schedule.
Sonoma is not a popular venue for the season finale. Although the wine region is great for corporate people, the track produces boring races and the attendance is not great. The great event at Gateway last year left some people wishing for Gateway to host the season finale. If Gateway, or any other current event became the new venue for the season finale, that might open a calendar slot in the summer unless Sonoma was moved from September.
What could be the additions to summer schedule?
The current summer schedule has space for one, maybe two new races. Public holidays are often difficult weekends to get people watching racing. Maybe the U.S. Independence Day weekend would be a great weekend for INDYCAR to have another Canadian race, back-to-back with Toronto. There have been rumors about a street race in Calgary; it would be far enough from Toronto to not affect the attendance. With the increasing Canadian participation in the the Verizon IndyCar Series, a second Canadian race would make sense.
As for American tracks I'd like to see in the schedule, I think Kentucky and Chicagoland would make sense. Both are close to INDYCAR's Midwestern fan base and more space has opened in both tracks' calendars with Chicagoland's NASCAR weekend moving from September to July and Kentucky losing its standalone Xfinity fall race. Both venues could host INDYCAR in August or September after their NASCAR races in July.
Might there be no Indy-Monaco clash in 2021?
The Indy 500 will have a relatively late date, May 30, in 2021. The last times the 500 has been that late were 2010 and 2004, both times not clashing with the Monaco Grand Prix but another F1 race.
In 2004 and 2010, the 24 Hours of Le Mans took place two weeks after the 500 instead of the usual three weeks. If the F1 schedule is made ensuring no clash with Le Mans, then there might be no F1 race in the Memorial Day weekend. The Monaco and Canadian GPs very much require a two-week gap plus that weekend between them has the Le Mans test day. If Le Mans retains its date from 2004 and 2010, the 500 might well be in a weekend with no F1 race unless F1 wants to create a date clash.
Even with no F1 race in the Memorial Day weekend, the Indy 500 would still be difficult for F1 drivers to participate. There won't likely be two consecutive weekends without an F1 race in May. An F1 driver participating in the 500 would need another driver qualifying the car for him, and the F1 race in Europe would limit the running in the practice. Ony those F1 drivers with recent INDYCAR experience might be willing to take on that challenge.
Should INDYCAR avoid Le Mans or Father's Day?
While the potential 2021 dates might prevent the usual Indy-Monaco clash, there is a risk of INDYCAR's Texas race clashing with the 24 Hours of Le Mans. On the other hand, the following week there is the Father's Day with the U.S. Open in golf.
It would be unfortunate if a conflicting event prevented INDYCAR drivers from racing at Le Mans. However, two weeks after the 500 is the preferred date for TMS.
Avoiding a clash with Le Mans would move Texas into the Father's Day weekend. The U.S. Open wouldn't really be a problem as Texas is a night race and would take place after the third round has finished. However, I think INDYCAR should retain its usual dates and avoid the Father's Day weekend, especially as later in June it might get overshadowed by the Stanley Cup and NBA Finals.
As unfortunate as a clash with Le Mans would be, more often than not the Father's Day allows drivers to participate in Le Mans. INDYCAR is not yet in a position where it could expect great attendance and TV ratings in unfavorable dates.
Whenever you hear about an F1 fan having a look at an INDYCAR race, you can usually hear them comparing it against F1. Some have found INDYCAR highly exciting while others still say they find F1 more interesting to watch. Having followed both series, I can explain those differences and try to address the most common complaints.
Parity of the field
In Formula One, every team must have an independently designed car. Given the disparity of resources between the teams, that disparity also translates to lap times. Of course, even a team with great resources can end up with a failed design, and a team with limited resources can produce a highly competitive car. But more often than not, the teams with the greatest resources can also design the best cars. That leads to predictable races when the disparity in the performance of the cars is too big to overcome on track.
In INDYCAR, all the teams are using a single-make chassis with two engine options, closely matched in terms of performance. That means you will have a full field closer than the top 10 in F1 usually is. However, a spec chassis doesn't remove the engineering factor from INDYCAR. You still need to find the right setup to beat the other teams. However, when you don't need to design your own car, even a team with limited resources but a great engineering department can achieve success. And when the field is closer, a good driver can make a greater difference than in F1.
Would I like to see different chassis in INDYCAR? Surely it could be interesting, like in the 1990s' CART when you had Reynard, Lola, and Swift supplying multiple teams and Penske building their own chassis. However, the 2015-17 aero kit era hurt the parity of the field. While those seasons were still closer than F1, a single-make chassis can provide better competition on track, allowing drivers to make the difference. Spending money in chassis development isn't really that relevant spending, especially as having multiple chassis isn't such an essential part of INDYCAR's identity as it is for F1. I rather see INDYCAR continuing with an affordable spec-chassis formula that allows more teams to compete.
The tracks
This is where I think INDYCAR really has it better than F1. F1 goes to 21 tracks, 16 of which are permanent venues and six are temporary venues. INDYCAR goes to 16 tracks, six of which are permanent road courses, four are street courses, and six are ovals.
Not only INDYCAR has the greater variety of tracks because of the ovals but its road and street courses are also more exciting than those in F1. While F1 keeps on going to new, increasingly similar tracks, the INDYCAR tracks still have more character and an old-school feeling. Paved runoffs aren't as common at INDYCAR tracks as they are in F1. Instead of the constant runoff abuse controversy of F1, in INDYCAR the track limits are where the paved surface ends and you don't want to go to gravel or grass.
That old-school feeling applies also to street courses in INDYCAR. While F1's street courses have silk-smooth surfaces, INDYCAR's venues still have the usual characteristics of street courses with bumpy surfaces and even concrete patches in some of the turns. That puts drivers' skills to an even greater test.
Oval racing vs. road racing
Oval racing is probably the greatest difference between F1 and INDYCAR. An ignorant F1 fan might say "INDYCAR is only ovals" and an INDYCAR fond of oval racing fan might reply "I wish it was".
Ovals make up just over a third of the INDYCAR schedule, though oval racing is what separates it from other open-wheel categories. However, oval racing is also something that those used to road racing can't always appreciate.
You can hear people watching oval racing for the first time saying it's only going around in circles. But they're doing that at over 220 MPH (350 km/h) on superspeedways, inches apart from other cars, requiring skill and courage. It's amazing to see the drivers maneuvering their cars at those speeds, trying to get to the front of the field. Success on road courses doesn't automatically make you a great oval racer, just like success on ovals doesn't automatically make you a great road racer.
Oval racing is more than just turning left. Oval races are usually the longest ones in the series and you are still working on the setup throughout the race. If you are leading and running in the clean air, you want to trim out the downforce for less drag. If you're running in the dirty air in the traffic, you want to have more downforce. And even with the spec chassis, your setup still needs to be good to win.
Some people may say oval races are won by whoever happens to be leading at the right moment. For sure, sometimes the draft makes it difficult to pull away from your rivals and defend against them. However, before you can win, you must be in a position to race for the win. You can't just suddenly make your way from the back to the front of the field. Close races where the timing of the pass for the lead may decide the victory are just a part of the game. And not all oval races are like that. Short ovals are different from the superspeedways; it's easier to pull away when the straights aren't that long and to pass you need to carry more speed from the turn as the straights aren't long enough for drafting.
I don't have a real preference between oval and road racing because they both can be great. Though the rarity of open-wheel oval races makes them special, something that even F1 doesn't have. And INDYCAR's crown jewel, the Greatest Spectacle in Racing is an oval race.
Indy 500
When talking about oval racing, you have to bring up the Indianapolis 500. There is no other race like the 500. It's one of the races alongside the Monaco Grand Prix and the 24 Hours of Le Mans making up the Triple Crown of Motorsports.
The Monaco GP feels like the least special of the legs of the Triple Crown. While Indianapolis and Le Mans stand out in INDYCAR and the FIA WEC as races bigger than championship with an expanded field, Monaco is more like a typical F1 race. And while Monaco is a unique challenge in the F1 schedule, the narrow and twisty street circuit usually produces boring races which have been decided already in the qualifying.
The Indy 500 is surely the most intense of the Triple Crown races. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is an ideal oval for close open-wheel racing. The front and back straights are long enough for drafting so you can't pull away from your rivals. However, passing is still a challenge when you have to carry enough speed through the turns in dirty air to pass from the draft on the following straight.
Yes, it takes some luck to win the 500. It's difficult to defend the lead because of the draft the car behind gets, unless you're running with less downforce for higher straightline speed. Leading with two laps to go may be too early because you likely won't get a chance to reclaim the lead if you get passed. Then again, you want to be leading those final laps because any incident can bring out the caution and effectively finish the race. That's a part of the game at the 500, and that's what makes it so exciting.
The Indy 500 may be a bigger race than the Verizon IndyCar Series championship. While I'm not a huge fan of valuing a single race over a series championship in open-wheel racing, I have to admit there are some good reasons for that. As the American open-wheel racing has had different sanctioning bodies and has gone through splits and unifications, the Indy 500 represents something permanent. That's a race that has attracted drivers from other series around the world.
Fernando Alonso may never join INDYCAR full-time but he wants to return to the 500. An F1 World Champion doesn't need to prove himself by winning an INDYCAR championship, though he wants to complete the Triple Crown with Indy and Le Mans wins. I hope his dream of the Triple Crown ignites other drivers' interest to attempt the same as well as makes fans exploring different series.
Caution procedures
INDYCAR's caution procedures with initially closed pits are often criticized, especially by those who are used to F1's procedure with open pits but also by hardcore INDYCAR fans. I, for one, don't really like closing the pits when the caution comes out, ruining the strategy of those who were to pit in the following laps.
However, in a series which has ovals where you lose a lap while you pit, closing the pits is actually fair. Otherwise those yet to pit can make their stops and those who had pitted can't unlap themselves while they are driving under a speed limit. A dual system with a virtual safety car and open pits for road courses, and the current procedure for the ovals could be a solution for the problem of closed pits.
That being said, the current system isn't really that unfair. You can minimize the risk of cautions by pitting as soon as the fuel window has opened. If you decide to stay out longer to run in clean air, you are taking the risk of a caution coming out. Though if there was a virtual safety car procedure, a strategy to pit early for fresh rubber could backfire if the virtual safety car came out. There are always winners and losers from a caution period, regardless of the procedures. And when there are 17 races in the season, the good and bad luck will cancel each other out.
There are people who say INDYCAR has too many full-course yellows compared to F1. At ovals, those yellows are necessary. At road courses, the full-course yellow comes out only when local yellows aren't enough. A virtual safety car or local slow zones with a speed limit might be enough, though I'm fine with the pace car bunching the field. Yes, you lose any gap you had built. But if you're the fastest driver on track, you should be the fastest also from the restart.
Overtaking aids
Both F1 and INDYCAR have overtaking aids. F1 has the DRS, allowing you to open a flap of your rear wing to reduce the drag when you're less than a second behind the car ahead coming into the DRS zone. INDYCAR has the push-to-pass, giving drivers 60 extra horsepower for 200 seconds on the road courses. Drivers can use it to pass a car, defend against another car, or just to improve the lap time.
I prefer INDYCAR's system. DRS has made passing in F1 already too easy when the car ahead can't defend. INDYCAR's P2P is more of a strategic element; you can use it when you need to pass , defend, or improve your lap time. You still need to manage the use of P2P so that you aren't wasting those seconds when you don't need to.
Driver talent
Some people see IndyCar as the last resort for those who didn't make it in F1. To be fair, most drivers outside North America grew up dreaming of success in F1 and INDYCAR is only a Plan B for them. However, in North America INDYCAR is one of the two major leagues in motorsports and there are drivers who have dedicated their career to make it to INDYCAR. Not coming over to race in the European feeder series may have kept their talent hidden from F1 enthusiasts, though there is no other series where they'd rather be than in than INDYCAR.
Saying F1 has the 20 best drivers in the world is incorrect. Some of the smaller teams rather choose one with sponsors than one with talent, although that applies to INDYCAR as well. And while F1 probably has the most of the top talent in open-wheel racing, there are also ones who never got their deserved F1 chance and are now having success in INDYCAR.
The Kiwi Scott Dixon came over to America early in his career, missing the European feeder ladder. In 2004, a year after his first IRL championship, he got to test for Williams F1 Team. As he wasn't selected to Williams' F1 lineup despite showing competitive pace in the tests, he continued racing in America, winning the Indy 500 and three more Verizon IndyCar Series championships.
After almost winning his debut INDYCAR race, Robert Wickens showed why he's one of the best active drivers who haven't made it to F1. In 2011 he beat the likes of Jean-Éric Vergne, Alexander Rossi, Daniel Ricciardo, and Brendon Hartley for the Formula Renault 3.5 championship. However, instead of making his way to F1, he spent the following six years in Mercedes' DTM program before joining INDYCAR this year.
Some people like to point out how competitive Fernando Alonso was at the Indy 500 last year, saying an INDYCAR driver couldn't do that in an F1 car. However, INDYCAR's close field is an environment where a driver can show his talent unlike F1 where Alonso has been struggling with the uncompetitive McLaren. Besides, McLaren was partnering Andretti Autosport for their Indy program, which was the dominant team of the Month of May with the Andretti driver Takuma Sato winning. If you put someone like Scott Dixon into a Mercedes F1 car and give him 10 days of testing on a particular track, I'm sure he could impress.
If somebody is saying F1 veteran Takuma Sato's win at the 500 shows the superior talent of F1 drivers, you'd better look at his championship finishes. The eight place, boosted by the 500's double points, equals his best championship finish in F1. However, Sato has won two races in INDYCAR while his best result in F1 was a third place, funnily enough in the US Grand Prix at Indianapolis.
Sato is the kind of a driver who can be as good as anybody on a good day but lacks the consistency to contend for the championship. In F1 that is not good enough to get into a winning car. In INDYCAR with a more level playing field, you don't have to be in one of the best teams to win a race. While Andretti was the best team at the 500 last year, he achieved his other win while driving for A.J. Foyt Enterprises, a team which hadn't won since 2002, and hasn't since Sato's win at Long Beach in 2013.
F1 is a brutal environment for drivers. You need to be in the right place at the right time. Unless you have personal sponsors to buy you a seat, you'd better be a protege of some major team to get your chance in F1. And when there are seats opening in those teams, they may already have set their sights at some younger future stars, just look at all those former Red Bull juniors. A bad career move can cost you the chance to race for the championship and put you out of the radar of the major teams if you haven't had the equipment to impress.
In INDYCAR there are more teams able to win. Even if you weren't driving for a top team, the closer parity allows your talent to stand out and put you on the radar of big teams. Just look at Ed Jones who got the coveted Chip Ganassi Racing seat after a brilliant season with Dale Coyne Racing.
Some people think almost anybody can win in INDYCAR. Of course, there have been cases when a driver wouldn't have won without a lucky caution. But no, not everybody can win in INDYCAR. More drivers can win in INDYCAR than in F1 because more teams can win. Give F1 drivers spec cars with closely matched engines and surely more than five drivers would win in a season.
The teams
F1 teams generally have a stronger identity than INDYCAR teams. For F1 fans it's more common to cheer for a particular team like the traditional teams Ferrari, McLaren, and Williams, or a major car brand like Mercedes or even an engine supplier like Honda.
This is an area where I prefer F1 over INDYCAR. Despite Mercedes' long absence before joining F1 again as an engine supplier in the 1990s, Mercedes has Grand Prix heritage already from the 30s and it raced against Ferrari in the first decade of the World Championship in the 50s. McLaren was founded in the 1960s and Williams in the 70s and the success over the years has made those names iconic.
INDYCAR teams, or teams in American motorsports, don't really have such a strong identity, apart from maybe Penske. Of course, teams like Foyt, Andretti, and Rahal Letterman Lanigan keep former champions involved in the series. But American motorsports being more driver-centric is reflected also here; fans in general are rooting for their favorite drivers, not really for teams.
I'm not saying INDYCAR should be like F1 in this regard. INDYCAR teams come and go and the OEMs aren't joining as teams but as engine suppliers. Though I can see having teams with a strong identity as a strength for F1, something that hardly any other motorsport has. The interest you have in a certain team keeps you interested in the series.
That being said, I prefer how INDYCAR assigns the car numbers to teams. Something like 14 for Foyt is such an iconic number, and it's nice to see young drivers taking over some old legends' cars, like Ed Jones driving the No. 10 for Ganassi like Dan Wheldon and Dario Franchitti used to. That works well in a series where drivers stay in the same team for a long period, like Hélio Castroneves driving the No. 3 for Penske since 2000.
INDYCAR and F1 are different, though both can be great
INDYCAR is no direct substitute for F1; there are certain major differences between the two series. But that's also the great thing, they complement each other. Embrace the variety and watch them both!
I used to be an F1 fan first and foremost, though once I got into INDYCAR racing, it's become my favorite motorsport. This decade hasn't surely been the most exciting in F1, being dominated first by Red Bull, then Mercedes. INDYCAR offered the kind of close racing I was looking for.
I can understand those people who say there is too much randomness in INDYCAR. For sure it's unfortunate when a driver's race gets ruined by an unfortunate timing of a caution, though the rules are the same for everybody. And I used to feel after some oval races that another driver could've won with one more or one less lap but the only thing that matters is who's leading at the checkered flag. That's how those races work, deal with it!
I guess my mindset has changed a bit when I started following INDYCAR regularly. The kind of oval races where two or even more drivers are battling for the win on the final lap are the kind of excitement I really enjoy. It doesn't matter who led the most laps; what matters is who led the final lap.
Surely INDYCAR is missing the extensive technical competition F1 has. But when you have closer racing, I can't complain. That's what I tune in for.
And if you think INDYCAR is for those who couldn't make it in F1, don't forget there are talented drivers who've grown up wishing to win the Indy 500. Give them the appreciation they deserve for having the skills and courage to go inches apart from other cars at over 220 MPH.
Lack of mainstream media coverage surely makes it harder to follow INDYCAR. But we live in the era of social media and you don't need to rely on your local media for news. Go to Twitter and follow @IndyCar, @RACERmag, @Motorsport, @MotorSportsTalk... and of course @FINdyCar.
The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is the leading motorsports series in the American television and the only series averaging over two million viewers. The only non-NASCAR race in the same territory of viewership is the Indianapolis 500, attracting an audience above the average of the NASCAR Cup Series but still less the half of that of NASCAR's flagship race, the Daytona 500.
NASCAR Cup Series and Indy 500 viewership. Click to enlarge.
I have excluded the Daytona 500 from Fox's Cup Series average because it has almost twice the audience of the second-most-viewed Cup race. Still, Fox's NASCAR coverage has more viewers than NBC's, both over-the-air and on cable.
Fox carries momentum from Daytona during the early season and a declining viewership during the season is a trend in NASCAR's TV ratings. Half of the NBC portion of the NASCAR season takes place once the football season has started, hurting NBC's ratings. Although the playoffs were introduced to create excitement into the late season clashing with football, the playoff races' ratings are still down on the summer races on NBC and NBCSN.
The overall trend was NASCAR's TV ratings going down. The average audience for the over-the-air telecasts on Fox was down 7 percent (including Daytona) and on NBC down 6 percent on 2016. On cable, the average audience was down 11 percent on both FS1 and NBCSN.
Comparable averages, different characteristics for INDYCAR, F1, NHRA audience
Not only the Monster Energy Cup Series is the most-viewed motorsports series in American television but also the Xfinity Series gets more viewers than any non-NASCAR series. I have split the Camping World Truck Series on FS1 into spring and fall parts to make it comparable with the other two NASCAR series where the season is split between Fox in the spring and NBC in the fall. The spring and fall averages of the Truck Series showcase the momentum NASCAR has after the Daytona Speedweeks and the struggle during the football season.
Xfinity, Trucks, INDYCAR, F1, and NHRA OTA audience.
Xfinity, Trucks, INDYCAR, F1, and NHRA cable audience.
The two open-wheel categories, INDYCAR and Formula One, are natural rivals, although they also complement each other and have a somewhat overlapping fanbase.
On free-to-air channels, the Verizon IndyCar Series races outside the 500 were usually in the same territory with F1 in TV ratings. However, 2017 was a bad year for INDYCAR on ABC with a 16-percent decline in the audience (excluding the Indy 500 and its qualifications). F1 on NBC has been split into two in the diagram above because the NFL usually hurts the fall races' audience. Still, the U.S. Grand Prix had 1.0 million viewers, up 45 percent from 2016, while the Mexican GP the following week had 825 thousand viewers, only marginally above the 2016 audience.
On cable, INDYCAR attracts slightly more viewers than F1. There are certain different characteristics in the viewership of those two series. While F1 consistently draws an audience between 500 and 600 thousand viewers for almost all the races in the European time zones, INDYCAR's audience varies more from race to race.
INDYCAR's viewership peaks between June and the end of August. That's a period when three major leagues, NFL, NBA, and NHL, are having the offseason. INDYCAR's higher peak of audience may be because it's more familiar of a series for the American audience plus afternoon races attract more casual viewers than F1 races in early Sunday morning.
On the other hand, apart from some Asian races in the middle of the night, F1 hardly ever gets as low TV ratings as INDYCAR sometimes gets. Maybe F1 has a more dedicated fanbase in the USA than INDYCAR's. Also, F1 races early in the morning don't usually clash with other major sports events.
I have split NHRA on FS1 into spring and fall averages because of the big difference in viewership. Until June, most NHRA races are shown tape-delayed after the NASCAR Cup race. The NASCAR lead-in allowed NHRA to attract the biggest cable audience for a non-NASCAR series and also above the NASCAR Trucks' audience. On the other hand, the viewership drops to under half of the early season once NHRA on FS1 goes opposite to NASCAR on NBC's channels and the NFL starts in September.
NHRA was the only series showing growth both over-the-air and on cable in 2017, although it was minimal. On Fox, NHRA's OTA audience was comparable to that of INDYCAR's.
Formula One has the youngest audience
Unsurprisingly the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is the leading motorsports series also in the 18-49 age group, and the Daytona 500 is clearly the most-viewed race also in that age group. However, the decline the 18-49 audience is even more rapid than in the total audience. The average 18-49 audience for the over-the-air telecasts on Fox was down 12 percent (including Daytona) and on NBC down 18 percent on 2016. On cable, the the decline was even more drastic with the average 18-49 audience down 18 percent on FS1 and 24 percent on NBCSN.
NASCAR Cup Series and Indy 500 viewership in the 18-49 age group.
If the Indy 500 attracted just under half of the total audience of the Daytona 500, the gap is even bigger in the 18-49 age group where Indy attracts only one third of Daytona's 18-49 audience. The age structure of the NASCAR Cup Series' fanbase looks slightly better than INDYCAR's: the 18-49 age group makes up 25 percent of the Cup Series' total audience during the season, for INDYCAR it's 22 percent. And while the Daytona 500 attracts young people more than other races with the 18-49 audience making up 30 percent of the total audience, for the Indy 500 it's only 22 percent. INDYCAR is struggling to attract younger generations as the viewership also for other races shows.
Xfinity, Trucks, INDYCAR, F1, and NHRA OTA audience in the 18-49 group.
Xfinity, Trucks, INDYCAR, F1, and NHRA cable audience in the 18-49 group.
If INDYCAR's total audience outside the 500 has been comparable to F1's audience, that's not the case in the 18-49 age group. INDYCAR lost 25 percent of its 18-49 audience on ABC in 2017, making it the least-viewed series on OTA channels in that age group. Despite the overall growth of the audience on NBCSN, INDYCAR also lost cable audience in the 18-49 group.
F1 has a positive outlook in America. It may be a niche sport in the USA but it has a young audience with the 18-49 age group making up 31 percent of the total audience. The Monaco and Canadian Grands Prix already averaged above the NASCAR Xfinity Series on OTA channels in 18-49 audience and F1 on NBCSN was in the territory of the Truck Series' viewership.
NHRA's viewership in the 18-49 age group drops more drastically when it loses the NASCAR lead-in on FS1. The 18-49 group makes up 24 percent of the total audience of the spring races on FS1 whereas they make up only 20 percent in the fall. That implies the younger audience are more of casual viewers that stay on the channel after the NASCAR race.
While a few series showed increased 18-49 viewership on the OTA networks, all series' cable viewership decreased in the 18-49 group. Cord cutting may be behind the decreased 18-49 cable viewership. Young adults don't want to pay for channels they don't have time to watch because of family and work reasons. If anything, they opt for streaming services they can watch on mobile devices wherever they are, and whenever they want, thanks to video-on-demand.
INDYCAR and F1 battling for the leading open-wheel series' status
NASCAR has been America's leading motorsport in the 00s and 10s, however it's losing fans as its star drivers are retiring and the racing is not as good as it used to be. And while the NASCAR management is trying to make the sport more exciting, the rule changes are dividing the fanbase and driving some fans away. Still, I don't expect any series to challenge NASCAR's leading position in America any time soon, so big is NASCAR's fanbase.
F1 has a positive outlook in America. While it's been losing viewership worldwide this decade, it's been growing in the USA and it has the youngest fanbase of major motorsports in the USA. Younger generations are more open towards global, traditionally non-American sports like soccer or Formula One, and the Internet allows them to follow the news even if the sport is not mainstream in the USA.
F1 will not be a direct rival for NASCAR, they are two totally different categories. NASCAR is as American as it gets, F1 is global. The two categories have a different target audience. And even though the American owners of F1 want to expand F1's footprint in the USA and add races there, most of the races will still take place in Europe or Asia in difficult time zones for the American audience.
F1 will face a challenge in the USA next year as it moves from NBC to ESPN. On NBC F1 was cross-promoted with the group's INDYCAR and NASCAR coverage, for ESPN the only motorsports programming is the five INDYCAR races on ABC. INDYCAR's decreasing viewership on ABC as opposed to the solid ratings on NBCSN does not look too promising F1 on ESPN.
INDYCAR has been trying to get back the fans it lost during its split years, and it has succeeded in growing its cable audience during the last few years. Still, it's been more about growing its core audience. The OTA audience, especially for the 500, has been down, implying INDYCAR struggles to attract casual viewers.
INDYCAR has an old fanbase, partly because the split years cost it younger generations. Attracting young fans is the most important thing for INDYCAR's future. If the current 18-49 viewership translates into the future overall viewership, INDYCAR will no longer be the leading alternative to NASCAR but a second-tier open-wheel series to F1 even in the American media. INDYCAR needs to outperform its rivals in social media and other media that young people consume.
There is no easy way to improve TV ratings, apart from a better TV deal and avoiding bad time slots. INDYCAR already has an on-track product second to none. Although I'm writing about the TV ratings, I think it's the live race experience that can drive up INDYCAR's popularity. INDYCAR needs more events like Long Beach, Road America, Gateway, and of course the 500; well-attended events that are more than races and can become known nationwide. INDYCAR currently lacks a bit of the feel of a major series; well-attended events would give it the impression of something big.
It would be especially great for INDYCAR if there were more oval races. Ovals offer a product that could appeal also to NASCAR fans and offer the kind of thrill that even F1, the pinnacle of motorsports, lacks.
I think INDYCAR with its US-centered schedule has more potential than F1 to become truly mainstream in the States. Then again, if the younger generations choose F1 over INDYCAR and NASCAR remains relatively popular, then there may be no space for INDYCAR as a high-profile series outside the 500.
Numbers via Awful Announcing, Showbuzz Daily, and Sports Media Watch. The numbers don't include streaming services, thus may differ from the numbers announced by the broadcasters. Rain-delayed races excluded from averages if delayed until Monday. Tape delays included besides live telecasts for races shown live on a secondary channel (e.g. CNBC) and F1 races shown live before 8am.
INDYCAR announced last week it won't add a race in Mexico City in the 2018 Verizon IndyCar Series schedule. It was disappointing news after all the positive talk about the chances of a 2018 Mexico race, though the sanctioning body is working to make the race happen in 2019.
Adrián Fernández, the Mexican Indy car star of the 90s and 00s, warned earlier in the fall that the attendance at Mexico City will be a disappointment if there are no full-time Mexican drivers in INDYCAR. Esteban Gutiérrez replaced Sébastien Bourdais in seven races in 2017 while the Frenchman was recovering from his Indy 500 qualifying accident, though the Mexican is still without a contract for 2018. The Mexico race not happening may imply Gutiérrez won't be in INDYCAR in 2018.
Maybe Mexico is not the market INDYCAR should be looking at, at least at the moment. Maybe INDYCAR needs a Mexican star before going there.
INDYCAR's big challenge is to get out of the shadow of NASCAR in the USA and Formula One elsewhere. At least in the States INDYCAR can get a good crowd at non-NASCAR venues like Road America, Gateway, or Long Beach. INDYCAR's recognition is minimal abroad and it would need local stars to make international races successful.
I'm not sure Gutiérrez is the driver who can make INDYCAR big in Mexico. He's the 2010 GP3 Series champion but has not achieved a lot in his career since then. Even if Gutiérrez made a career in INDYCAR, he may not be the new Fernández who won a total of 11 races in CART and IRL combined.
F1 driver Sergio Pérez is Mexico's racing star and the Mexican Grand Prix draws a great crowd. It would be hard for INDYCAR to replicate that without a Mexican star driver. If INDYCAR wants a great event, I'm not sure Mexico City will be it. On the other hand, Mexico would be a well-needed race in February or March when it's still too cold in most of the USA.
The Puebla oval was mentioned earlier in the rumors about a Mexican race. I think it could have more potential for INDYCAR than Mexico City has. INDYCAR would not be in the shadow of F1 at Puebla and the Verizon IndyCar Series schedule needs more ovals. The problem with the 1.25-mile oval is that the SAFER Barrier should be installed before INDYCAR could race there.
Japan, Brazil, Australia have more potential
If INDYCAR lacks a Mexican star, it's got a foreign star in the Japanese Takuma Sato. The Indy 500 winner was the first to take the Borg-Warner Trophy abroad and the grandstands were packed during his demonstration run at the Motegi oval during Honda's fan festival.
Twin Ring Motegi hosted 14 American open-wheel races between 1998 and 2011 with the last one being on the road course because of earthquake damage to the oval. While the oval has still not been fixed to suit for racing, the road course could host an INDYCAR race. The legendary Suzuka Circuit could be another option, also being owned by Honda.
With a Japanese star driver and a Japanese manufacturer, there is no better opportunity for INDYCAR to break through in Japan than there is now. Sato is 40 now and not getting any younger, though he should have some five good years left in the sport. And once Sato retires, maybe Honda will promote some Japanese talent to replace him.
The calendar slot would be the problem with a Japanese race. INDYCAR wants its overseas races in February or March before staying in North America from March for the rest of the season. However, that must not prevent a potential race in Japan. Most of the previous Motegi races took place in April so a race in Japan could bridge the gap between St. Petersburg and Long Beach.
Brazil is another foreign country that has shown fan interest in INDYCAR. Hélio Castroneves and Tony Kanaan have been the Brazilian heros in American open-wheel racing during the past two decades. While Castroneves has now left full-time INDYCAR racing for IMSA and also Kanaan is in the late stages of his career, the 2018 rookie Matheus Leist has already shown lots of promise in junior open-wheel series and may become Brazil's next INDYCAR star.
An INDYCAR race in Brazil could have some potential, though it would need the right promoter. Most lately, INDYCAR raced in São Paulo from 2010 to 2013 and was set to return to Brazil in Brasília in 2015 before local officials canceled the race. A race in Brazil could be the kind of an early-season race INDYCAR wants, though a reliable promoter and Brazilian representation in the Verizon IndyCar Series would be needed.
Australia has the longest overseas traditions of American open-wheel racing as Surfers Paradise hosted races annually for 18 years between 1991 and 2008. A tram line has made the old CART layout unsuitable for racing, though Virgin Australia Supercars is still racing there on a shortened layout. The shortened layout might not necessarily be too short for INDYCAR, however Supercars have taken over the race date and it's hard to see a street course with another racing event.
Australia might or might not be a good place for INDYCAR. Besides the tradition of hosting American open-wheel racing, Australia has a star driver in INDYCAR in the 2014 series champion Will Power. On the other hand, next year it will be a decade since Indy cars' last visit to Surfers. Australia has a strong local championship in Supercars and Australia's biggest racing star is the F1 driver Daniel Ricciardo. INDYCAR might have some potential in Australia but also face strong competition there.
Europe is F1 and MotoGP continent
Europe has lots of classic racing tracks and many people would like to see INDYCAR at some of the venues F1 has left. However, I'm skeptical about INDYCAR's prospects in Europe.
The European motorsports market is dominated by F1, MotoGP, and some local big events. INDYCAR doesn't get much exposure in the European media and I wouldn't expect a big crowd for an INDYCAR race in Europe.
Europe is no different from the rest of the world; INDYCAR would need a national hero in some European country to become big there. But it's so hard for an INDYCAR driver to become a national hero in Europe. Simon Pagenaud is the 2016 series champion but we couldn't see him getting the same reception in France that Indy 500 winner Sato got in Japan.
In Europe, it's hard for drivers to become stars in their countries unless they have success in F1. As long as INDYCAR doesn't get full-time drivers of the caliber of Nigel Mansell, it will not break through in Europe. Fernando Alonso's Indy 500 ambitions aren't enough to make the full series noted in the European media.
It would be hard to accommodate European races into the Verizon IndyCar Series schedule because most European venues don't come into question before April. INDYCAR needs to dedicate the summer for North American races instead of a time-consuming overseas trip, unless the country has lots of potential like Japan seemingly has.
INDYCAR doesn't need international races for the sake of being international. INDYCAR needs good race events. At the moment I can see more potential in the USA and Canada than overseas. The return to Road America and Gateway showed INDYCAR can attract a good crowd at the right venues. Overseas it's more difficult because of the minimal exposure INDYCAR gets there. Japan, Brazil, and Australia are very much the only overseas countries I'd look at.
The FIA Formula E Championship is starting its fourth season. Although the series doesn't enjoy huge mainstream exposure yet, it has attracted major manufacturers and some of the best drivers outside Formula One.
Formula E has already changed the motorsports landscape. Audi and Porsche ended their LMP1 programs in favor of a Formula E program, leaving Toyota as the only OEM brand in the FIA WEC's top class. Mercedes will leave the DTM after the 2018 season to join Formula E while the other DTM manufacturers Audi and BMW will be featured in both series.
Formula E may not be the series with the biggest exposure but it appears as the most relevant series for the manufacturers. Electric vehicles are growing their market share and Formula E offers a chance to develop the technology. Manufacturer involvement also helps Formula E to attract some of the best drivers outside F1.
Being such a new series means Formula E is still relatively inexpensive for manufacturers. The costs will surely go up with new manufacturers joining the series. It is almost inevitable that at some point some manufacturer doesn't see enough return on their investment and will leave the series. But because of the development of the EV technology, I believe Formula E will remain a highly relevant series for manufacturers, regardless of how much exposure it gets.
Can Formula E challenge Formula One?
While Formula E has already major manufacturers like Audi, Citroën, Jaguar, and Renault, and will be joined by BMW, Mercedes, and Porsche, Formula One is at a historical low with only four engine manufacturers. While F1 uses hybrid technology to make it more relevant for the manufacturers' R&D, the cost of competing in F1 is very high and the risk of a failure is big as shown by Honda.
Maybe Formula E has already won the technological war. Electric vehicles are a major part of the future of mobility and thus a full-electric series is highly relevant for manufacturers. Hybrid vehicles may just be for the transition phase from internal combustion engine to electric motors, and the rapid development of EV technology may make hybrids obsolete.
Still, Formula E is hardly a true alternative for Formula One. The difference in the performance of the cars is very big as the video below shows. Formula E may be attractive on twisty street courses but can't offer the thrill of speed Formula One offers at tracks like Spa or Suzuka.
While Formula E is not really a rival for Formula One in fan interest, it is already in manufacturer interest. Given that Formula E offers manufacturers more relevant R&D opportunities, maybe Formula One should rely more on its marketing power instead of R&D opportunities.
Formula One has been losing viewers. The hybrid era hasn't been attractive to fans because of the big disparity of the grid. Maybe F1 should abandon the hybrid technology in favor of traditional internal combustion engines to attract more manufacturers and have a closer parity of the grid.
Abandoning the hybrid technology would make F1 less relevant for the manufacturers' R&D. However, the low number of manufacturers currently in F1 implies the current regulations haven't been particularly relevant anyway. Abandoning the hybrid technology would bring down the costs, while closer parity could help to increase the viewership, making an F1 project a better marketing investment. To continue spreading the green message, F1 could switch to biofuels, like the E85 fuel blend used in INDYCAR.
Formula E's strength in attracting manufacturers is the relevant EV technology, Formula One's strength is the marketing opportunities its huge audience provides. F1 may already have lost the technological war so it should concentrate on providing the best on-track product for the fans.
Formula E ended WEC's growth
The LMP1 class of the FIA WEC appeared attractive to manufacturers just a few years ago. It allowed manufacturers to develop and promote hybrid technology. However, once the full-electric Formula E emerged with lower costs, Audi and Porsche left LMP1 for Formula E and the WEC is struggling to get a new OEM joining Toyota and privateer teams in the top class.
Just like I think F1 would do better without hybrid technology, I also think the same about the WEC. While Toyota is the only OEM brand in the WEC's top class, IMSA has four manufacturers in its top class where hybrid technology is not required or even allowed.
It was only a few years ago that the WEC was seen as a potential challenger for F1 in most optimistic predictions, however I'm less optimistic about its future prospects than Formula E's. Endurance racing just isn't for masses. The 24 Hours of Le Mans is the only race that gets mainstream attention, and even the shorter six-hour races are too long for casual viewers. Besides, three-driver crews put less emphasis on individuals whom casual fans could root for.
The WEC needs to be run as a niche sport. Even if it was highly relevant for R&D, it doesn't give such a big exposure F1 gives. The costs of competing in the WEC should be in line with the exposure. Rather than being an expensive class for factory teams, LMP1 should be affordable for privateer and customer teams with some manufacturer involvement.
Formula E is no direct rival for INDYCAR
Formula E is challenging INDYCAR for the status of the second-most important open-wheel series in the world. While Formula E has nothing as prestigious as the Indy 500, Formula E has more manufacturer involvement.
Formula E attracts some of the best drivers outside Formula One because factory teams can afford hiring best drivers available without the need to bring additional sponsorship. In INDYCAR there is only a limited number of fully-funded cars, meaning additional sponsorship is often needed to get a seat. Besides, oval racing is a turn-off for some drivers who'd otherwise have the talent to make it in INDYCAR.
Still, Formula E is not really a direct rival for INDYCAR. INDYCAR is one of North America's leading motorsports, Formula E is a global series but in no place it is as big as INDYCAR is in North America. INDYCAR may be a niche sport in the USA but Formula E's exposure in the American media is just marginal compared to INDYCAR.
Whether Formula E has more worldwide viewers or not is not relevant for INDYCAR. INDYCAR needs growth primarily in North America; overseas are not relevant for a series with mostly American sponsors. It's better for INDYCAR to be local and big than global and small. Increased audience will lead to an increase in sponsorship money, making it easier for INDYCAR teams to attract drivers from other series. Household names from F1 will make it easier for INDYCAR to get attention overseas but INDYCAR needs to grow in North America first.
In terms of manufacturer interest, the same applies here. If INDYCAR can increase its audience, it will be more attractive for manufacturers. Going away from the internal combustion engine isn't really an option for INDYCAR; a hybrid system would only be a ballast at ovals where you don't usually brake. Besides, it will take a long time before a full-electric race car could complete 500 miles in under three hours. INDYCAR needs to offer the manufacturers a cost-effective platform to promote their brands.
While Formula E is one of the most attractive series for drivers outside Formula One, also INDYCAR attracts drivers. When Alexander Rossi was left without a seat in F1, he moved to INDYCAR. Robert Wickens will make his INDYCAR debut in 2018 after six seasons at Mercedes in the DTM, and the Le Mans winner Brendon Hartley was already under contract with Ganassi before Toro Rosso bought him out for the 2018 F1 season. And of course Fernando Alonso raced in the 500 this year. If INDYCAR can grow its audience and attract more sponsors, teams will have more money to attract drivers.
What to expect from Formula E's future?
Formula E is the top destination for drivers outside Formula One, just like CART was in the 90s, DTM in the 00s, and the WEC in the early 2010s. However, unlike the WEC which went from boom to bust in a span of few years, I expect Formula E to remain attractive for manufacturers for years to come because EV technology is most relevant for their R&D.
Formula E has a short race format of less than one hour. That should make the series easy for casual viewers to watch. The winter schedule might have more potential to fill the void of racing during other series' offseason; over half of the Formula E season takes place after the Formula One season has started.
I don't really expect Formula E to become a true alternative for Formula One anytime soon because of the big performance gap. That being said, it would be interesting to see what would happen if Formula E truly started challenging Formula One for popularity. That kind of competition might be as destructive as the CART-IRL split of American open-wheel racing.
If Formula E ever gets close to Formula One cars' performance, it would probably make the most sense to merge the series to prevent any destructive competition. Electric vehicles will be a big part of the future of mobility and manufacturer interest will probably eventually dictate F1 to switch to full-electric cars. Formula E could provide a ready concept for Formula One to switch to full-electric cars. But that's still years, maybe decades away.
On the other hand, if more electric series emerge, manufacturers may be divided between different series. There are already some single-make electric GT series set to debut, and I expect to see more electric GT and touring cars in the future. While multiple electric series may divide manufacturers, it's always good to have alternatives.
