Before speculating on additions to the Verizon IndyCar Series schedule, let's have a look at how the current events might be placed in the upcoming schedules. I have included the next three years because of the moving public holiday dates. I have also made some changes to avoid clashes with some big TV events. I have included those other sports events and public holidays into the table. Announced and known dates are bolded.
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April has stable events. And Phoenix
The Toyota Grand Prix of Long Beach and the Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama are stable INDYCAR events in April and one can expect those races to return close to their current dates in the upcoming seasons. On the other hand, the two races since INDYCAR returned to ISM Raceway in Phoenix have not drawn a great crowd, creating uncertainty around the future of the event.
The usual date for Long Beach is one week after golf's Masters Tournament, and that is a very stable date given the event's importance for the Verizon IndyCar Series. However, last year the event was brought forward by a week because of Easter, with the race taking place opposite to the final round of the Masters.
A Sunday afternoon race opposite to the Masters doesn't really make sense; that is a TV slot INDYCAR should try to avoid. In 2019 Long Beach may again need to be brought forward to avoid the Easter weekend, though it would make more sense to bring it forward by two weeks into the Sunday of the NCAA Basketball Final Four. While the Final Four weekend is difficult for other sports on TV, women's championship game on Sunday doesn't draw such a big audience as the men's games on Saturday and Monday.
While a Sunday afternoon race makes little sense opposite to the Masters, that is a good weekend for a Saturday night race after the third round has finished at Augusta National. That is exactly what INDYCAR has this year with the Phoenix Grand Prix, and I think that should become the permanent date for the race in the upcoming seasons, back-to-back with Long Beach, another race in the West.
However, there are years when the Masters weekend is also the Easter weekend, like 2020. If the Phoenix date was brought forward by a week, it would be in the Final Four weekend. A Saturday night race opposite to the men's semifinals doesn't make sense. The race in the Final Four weekend should rather be a Sunday afternoon race opposite to the less-viewed women's championship game.
Depending on the year, Barber Motorsports Park usually hosts INDYCAR two or three weeks before the INDYCAR Grand Prix at the IMS road course. The date of NASCAR's spring weekend at Talladega very much dictates Barber's INDYCAR date because it makes no sense to have two races in the same weekend just over 30 miles apart from each other.
What could be the possible additions to the early season?
It would be difficult to fit races outside North America into the schedule after St. Petersburg, especially if INDYCAR returns to Phoenix also in the upcoming seasons. Those overseas races would probably take place before St. Pete, still leaving the gap between St. Pete and the following race.
There are not so many venues in North America for which March would be an ideal time to host INDYCAR. With INDYCAR at St. Pete and IMSA at Sebring, there may already be too much racing in Florida to add Homestead-Miami Speedway to the INDYCAR schedule. The same can be said about Southern California. With NASCAR at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana in mid-March and INDYCAR at Long Beach in early April, an INDYCAR return to Fontana in late March may be out of question. Teams have been testing at Sonoma Raceway during the winter, though a date change to March would make no sense for Sonoma when the temperature hardly reaches 70 °F and there's a greater risk of rain.
While some people would like to see the Verizon IndyCar Series visiting Circuit of The Americas which hosts Pirelli World Challenge two weeks after St. Pete, I don't think INDYCAR should go there and risk its relationship with Texas Motor Speedway, the longest-standing oval venue in the series apart from Indianapolis. I don't think venues with other big events, like COTA with Formula One and MotoGP, necessarily have much potential for INDYCAR. Besides, the track president Bobby Epstein has stated the MotoGP date in April limits the opportunities for INDYCAR in the spring.
Mexico City would seem like the potential new race to fill the late-March gap. While an international race, it would still allow a quick transportation of the equipment when the following race might be just a week later in the Western USA. The climate in Mexico City would allow a race at almost any part of the schedule, though late-March is where that race would be needed the most. With some uncertainty around the future of Phoenix, INDYCAR really needs to find a new race for that part of the season. Even if Mexico City was only a replacement for Phoenix, it would offer more flexibility as the NASCAR schedule wouldn't set any constraints.
June has a stable schedule
After the Indy 500 and the other events at Indianapolis Motor Speedway have taken the May, INDYCAR has a stable schedule for June. The Chevrolet Dual in Detroit is the first weekend after the 500, Texas Motor Speedway has its preferred date two weeks after the 500, and after a Father's Day break INDYCAR goes to Road America. The Father's Day break is well-needed as the teams have been racing (or qualifying for the 500) for five consecutive weeks. The break also allows the drivers to participate in the 24 Hours of Le Mans, and the Father's Day weekend with golf's U.S. Open might be a difficult one for TV ratings.
After the Verizon IndyCar Series' successful return to Road America, one can expect it to become a permanent fixture in the schedule. The long INDYCAR traditions and the improved attendance of last few years allow us to expect TMS returning also in the upcoming seasons. Detroit is the only question mark because of the local opposition for closing parts of the park in Belle Isle for the event. Though as long as the park is available for the street races, one can expect General Motors and Roger Penske to ensure Detroit hosts the first INDYCAR weekend after the 500.
INDYCAR needs to avoid NASCAR clashes on NBC from July
The full Verizon IndyCar Series is set to be broadcast on NBC's channels from 2019. Avoiding NASCAR's TV slots is important for INDYCAR, even more from July onwards when NBC starts broadcasting NASCAR's Monster Energy Cup and Xfinity Series.
Whenever NASCAR has a Cup race in Saturday night, that means INDYCAR can have a Sunday afternoon race with no competition from NASCAR. The weekend of NASCAR's Bristol night race has worked well for INDYCAR's Pocono race.
Last two years, Honda Indy Toronto was shown live on CNBC while a tape delayed broadcast was shown on NBCSN after the live coverage from a NASCAR race. This year Toronto won't clash with a NASCAR race since it's in the weekend of the Kentucky night race.
Iowa Speedway used to host a Saturday night race until its date was changed to NASCAR's Kentucky weekend, denying the Saturday night TV slot. This year Iowa is again a Sunday afternoon race as the Saturday night of the weekend has NASCAR's Coke Zero 400.
I think it would be sensible to tie Toronto's date to NASCAR's Kentucky weekend. That would give it a date with no competition from NASCAR. Iowa should be moved to the weekend after Toronto when NASCAR has afternoon races and Iowa could become a night race again.
The 2020 Olympics in Tokyo will have less effect on broadcasting than the 2016 Games in Rio. While the Rio Olympics took the afternoon and evening TV slots, the Tokyo Olympics will start in the prime time and continue into the night. Mid-Ohio's date would be during the Olympics, which should not be a problem for an afternoon race. Of course, NBC broadcasts the Olympics in the USA and may want to use all its resources for the Olympic coverage. Though that wouldn't be a problem if IMS Productions produce the coverage under the new broadcasting contract.
In 2019, NASCAR's Bristol night race will likely take place only one week before the Bojangles' Southern 500 in the Labor Day weekend, a weekend currently with no Cup Series race. That will likely force a date change for INDYCAR at Gateway Motorsports Park, unless it became a Sunday afternoon race. Assuming Gateway will be the weekend before Pocono in 2019, it might make sense to keep that calendar slot also for the upcoming seasons, to close the early-August gap in the schedule.
Sonoma is not a popular venue for the season finale. Although the wine region is great for corporate people, the track produces boring races and the attendance is not great. The great event at Gateway last year left some people wishing for Gateway to host the season finale. If Gateway, or any other current event became the new venue for the season finale, that might open a calendar slot in the summer unless Sonoma was moved from September.
What could be the additions to summer schedule?
The current summer schedule has space for one, maybe two new races. Public holidays are often difficult weekends to get people watching racing. Maybe the U.S. Independence Day weekend would be a great weekend for INDYCAR to have another Canadian race, back-to-back with Toronto. There have been rumors about a street race in Calgary; it would be far enough from Toronto to not affect the attendance. With the increasing Canadian participation in the the Verizon IndyCar Series, a second Canadian race would make sense.
As for American tracks I'd like to see in the schedule, I think Kentucky and Chicagoland would make sense. Both are close to INDYCAR's Midwestern fan base and more space has opened in both tracks' calendars with Chicagoland's NASCAR weekend moving from September to July and Kentucky losing its standalone Xfinity fall race. Both venues could host INDYCAR in August or September after their NASCAR races in July.
Might there be no Indy-Monaco clash in 2021?
The Indy 500 will have a relatively late date, May 30, in 2021. The last times the 500 has been that late were 2010 and 2004, both times not clashing with the Monaco Grand Prix but another F1 race.
In 2004 and 2010, the 24 Hours of Le Mans took place two weeks after the 500 instead of the usual three weeks. If the F1 schedule is made ensuring no clash with Le Mans, then there might be no F1 race in the Memorial Day weekend. The Monaco and Canadian GPs very much require a two-week gap plus that weekend between them has the Le Mans test day. If Le Mans retains its date from 2004 and 2010, the 500 might well be in a weekend with no F1 race unless F1 wants to create a date clash.
Even with no F1 race in the Memorial Day weekend, the Indy 500 would still be difficult for F1 drivers to participate. There won't likely be two consecutive weekends without an F1 race in May. An F1 driver participating in the 500 would need another driver qualifying the car for him, and the F1 race in Europe would limit the running in the practice. Ony those F1 drivers with recent INDYCAR experience might be willing to take on that challenge.
Should INDYCAR avoid Le Mans or Father's Day?
While the potential 2021 dates might prevent the usual Indy-Monaco clash, there is a risk of INDYCAR's Texas race clashing with the 24 Hours of Le Mans. On the other hand, the following week there is the Father's Day with the U.S. Open in golf.
It would be unfortunate if a conflicting event prevented INDYCAR drivers from racing at Le Mans. However, two weeks after the 500 is the preferred date for TMS.
Avoiding a clash with Le Mans would move Texas into the Father's Day weekend. The U.S. Open wouldn't really be a problem as Texas is a night race and would take place after the third round has finished. However, I think INDYCAR should retain its usual dates and avoid the Father's Day weekend, especially as later in June it might get overshadowed by the Stanley Cup and NBA Finals.
As unfortunate as a clash with Le Mans would be, more often than not the Father's Day allows drivers to participate in Le Mans. INDYCAR is not yet in a position where it could expect great attendance and TV ratings in unfavorable dates.
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