Formula E has already changed the motorsports landscape. Audi and Porsche ended their LMP1 programs in favor of a Formula E program, leaving Toyota as the only OEM brand in the FIA WEC's top class. Mercedes will leave the DTM after the 2018 season to join Formula E while the other DTM manufacturers Audi and BMW will be featured in both series.
Formula E may not be the series with the biggest exposure but it appears as the most relevant series for the manufacturers. Electric vehicles are growing their market share and Formula E offers a chance to develop the technology. Manufacturer involvement also helps Formula E to attract some of the best drivers outside F1.
Being such a new series means Formula E is still relatively inexpensive for manufacturers. The costs will surely go up with new manufacturers joining the series. It is almost inevitable that at some point some manufacturer doesn't see enough return on their investment and will leave the series. But because of the development of the EV technology, I believe Formula E will remain a highly relevant series for manufacturers, regardless of how much exposure it gets.
Can Formula E challenge Formula One?
While Formula E has already major manufacturers like Audi, Citroën, Jaguar, and Renault, and will be joined by BMW, Mercedes, and Porsche, Formula One is at a historical low with only four engine manufacturers. While F1 uses hybrid technology to make it more relevant for the manufacturers' R&D, the cost of competing in F1 is very high and the risk of a failure is big as shown by Honda.
Maybe Formula E has already won the technological war. Electric vehicles are a major part of the future of mobility and thus a full-electric series is highly relevant for manufacturers. Hybrid vehicles may just be for the transition phase from internal combustion engine to electric motors, and the rapid development of EV technology may make hybrids obsolete.
Still, Formula E is hardly a true alternative for Formula One. The difference in the performance of the cars is very big as the video below shows. Formula E may be attractive on twisty street courses but can't offer the thrill of speed Formula One offers at tracks like Spa or Suzuka.
While Formula E is not really a rival for Formula One in fan interest, it is already in manufacturer interest. Given that Formula E offers manufacturers more relevant R&D opportunities, maybe Formula One should rely more on its marketing power instead of R&D opportunities.
Formula One has been losing viewers. The hybrid era hasn't been attractive to fans because of the big disparity of the grid. Maybe F1 should abandon the hybrid technology in favor of traditional internal combustion engines to attract more manufacturers and have a closer parity of the grid.
Abandoning the hybrid technology would make F1 less relevant for the manufacturers' R&D. However, the low number of manufacturers currently in F1 implies the current regulations haven't been particularly relevant anyway. Abandoning the hybrid technology would bring down the costs, while closer parity could help to increase the viewership, making an F1 project a better marketing investment. To continue spreading the green message, F1 could switch to biofuels, like the E85 fuel blend used in INDYCAR.
Formula E's strength in attracting manufacturers is the relevant EV technology, Formula One's strength is the marketing opportunities its huge audience provides. F1 may already have lost the technological war so it should concentrate on providing the best on-track product for the fans.
Formula E ended WEC's growth
The LMP1 class of the FIA WEC appeared attractive to manufacturers just a few years ago. It allowed manufacturers to develop and promote hybrid technology. However, once the full-electric Formula E emerged with lower costs, Audi and Porsche left LMP1 for Formula E and the WEC is struggling to get a new OEM joining Toyota and privateer teams in the top class.
Just like I think F1 would do better without hybrid technology, I also think the same about the WEC. While Toyota is the only OEM brand in the WEC's top class, IMSA has four manufacturers in its top class where hybrid technology is not required or even allowed.
It was only a few years ago that the WEC was seen as a potential challenger for F1 in most optimistic predictions, however I'm less optimistic about its future prospects than Formula E's. Endurance racing just isn't for masses. The 24 Hours of Le Mans is the only race that gets mainstream attention, and even the shorter six-hour races are too long for casual viewers. Besides, three-driver crews put less emphasis on individuals whom casual fans could root for.
The WEC needs to be run as a niche sport. Even if it was highly relevant for R&D, it doesn't give such a big exposure F1 gives. The costs of competing in the WEC should be in line with the exposure. Rather than being an expensive class for factory teams, LMP1 should be affordable for privateer and customer teams with some manufacturer involvement.
Formula E is no direct rival for INDYCAR
Formula E is challenging INDYCAR for the status of the second-most important open-wheel series in the world. While Formula E has nothing as prestigious as the Indy 500, Formula E has more manufacturer involvement.
Formula E attracts some of the best drivers outside Formula One because factory teams can afford hiring best drivers available without the need to bring additional sponsorship. In INDYCAR there is only a limited number of fully-funded cars, meaning additional sponsorship is often needed to get a seat. Besides, oval racing is a turn-off for some drivers who'd otherwise have the talent to make it in INDYCAR.
Still, Formula E is not really a direct rival for INDYCAR. INDYCAR is one of North America's leading motorsports, Formula E is a global series but in no place it is as big as INDYCAR is in North America. INDYCAR may be a niche sport in the USA but Formula E's exposure in the American media is just marginal compared to INDYCAR.
Whether Formula E has more worldwide viewers or not is not relevant for INDYCAR. INDYCAR needs growth primarily in North America; overseas are not relevant for a series with mostly American sponsors. It's better for INDYCAR to be local and big than global and small. Increased audience will lead to an increase in sponsorship money, making it easier for INDYCAR teams to attract drivers from other series. Household names from F1 will make it easier for INDYCAR to get attention overseas but INDYCAR needs to grow in North America first.
In terms of manufacturer interest, the same applies here. If INDYCAR can increase its audience, it will be more attractive for manufacturers. Going away from the internal combustion engine isn't really an option for INDYCAR; a hybrid system would only be a ballast at ovals where you don't usually brake. Besides, it will take a long time before a full-electric race car could complete 500 miles in under three hours. INDYCAR needs to offer the manufacturers a cost-effective platform to promote their brands.
While Formula E is one of the most attractive series for drivers outside Formula One, also INDYCAR attracts drivers. When Alexander Rossi was left without a seat in F1, he moved to INDYCAR. Robert Wickens will make his INDYCAR debut in 2018 after six seasons at Mercedes in the DTM, and the Le Mans winner Brendon Hartley was already under contract with Ganassi before Toro Rosso bought him out for the 2018 F1 season. And of course Fernando Alonso raced in the 500 this year. If INDYCAR can grow its audience and attract more sponsors, teams will have more money to attract drivers.
What to expect from Formula E's future?
Formula E is the top destination for drivers outside Formula One, just like CART was in the 90s, DTM in the 00s, and the WEC in the early 2010s. However, unlike the WEC which went from boom to bust in a span of few years, I expect Formula E to remain attractive for manufacturers for years to come because EV technology is most relevant for their R&D.
Formula E has a short race format of less than one hour. That should make the series easy for casual viewers to watch. The winter schedule might have more potential to fill the void of racing during other series' offseason; over half of the Formula E season takes place after the Formula One season has started.
I don't really expect Formula E to become a true alternative for Formula One anytime soon because of the big performance gap. That being said, it would be interesting to see what would happen if Formula E truly started challenging Formula One for popularity. That kind of competition might be as destructive as the CART-IRL split of American open-wheel racing.
If Formula E ever gets close to Formula One cars' performance, it would probably make the most sense to merge the series to prevent any destructive competition. Electric vehicles will be a big part of the future of mobility and manufacturer interest will probably eventually dictate F1 to switch to full-electric cars. Formula E could provide a ready concept for Formula One to switch to full-electric cars. But that's still years, maybe decades away.
On the other hand, if more electric series emerge, manufacturers may be divided between different series. There are already some single-make electric GT series set to debut, and I expect to see more electric GT and touring cars in the future. While multiple electric series may divide manufacturers, it's always good to have alternatives.
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