Instead of Mexico, INDYCAR should look at Japan

INDYCAR announced last week it won't add a race in Mexico City in the 2018 Verizon IndyCar Series schedule. It was disappointing news after all the positive talk about the chances of a 2018 Mexico race, though the sanctioning body is working to make the race happen in 2019.

Adrián Fernández, the Mexican Indy car star of the 90s and 00s, warned earlier in the fall that the attendance at Mexico City will be a disappointment if there are no full-time Mexican drivers in INDYCAR. Esteban Gutiérrez replaced Sébastien Bourdais in seven races in 2017 while the Frenchman was recovering from his Indy 500 qualifying accident, though the Mexican is still without a contract for 2018. The Mexico race not happening may imply Gutiérrez won't be in INDYCAR in 2018.

Maybe Mexico is not the market INDYCAR should be looking at, at least at the moment. Maybe INDYCAR needs a Mexican star before going there.

INDYCAR's big challenge is to get out of the shadow of NASCAR in the USA and Formula One elsewhere. At least in the States INDYCAR can get a good crowd at non-NASCAR venues like Road America, Gateway, or Long Beach. INDYCAR's recognition is minimal abroad and it would need local stars to make international races successful.

I'm not sure Gutiérrez is the driver who can make INDYCAR big in Mexico. He's the 2010 GP3 Series champion but has not achieved a lot in his career since then. Even if Gutiérrez made a career in INDYCAR, he may not be the new Fernández who won a total of 11 races in CART and IRL combined.

F1 driver Sergio Pérez is Mexico's racing star and the Mexican Grand Prix draws a great crowd. It would be hard for INDYCAR to replicate that without a Mexican star driver. If INDYCAR wants a great event, I'm not sure Mexico City will be it. On the other hand, Mexico would be a well-needed race in February or March when it's still too cold in most of the USA.

The Puebla oval was mentioned earlier in the rumors about a Mexican race. I think it could have more potential for INDYCAR than Mexico City has. INDYCAR would not be in the shadow of F1 at Puebla and the Verizon IndyCar Series schedule needs more ovals. The problem with the 1.25-mile oval is that the SAFER Barrier should be installed before INDYCAR could race there.

Japan, Brazil, Australia have more potential

If INDYCAR lacks a Mexican star, it's got a foreign star in the Japanese Takuma Sato. The Indy 500 winner was the first to take the Borg-Warner Trophy abroad and the grandstands were packed during his demonstration run at the Motegi oval during Honda's fan festival.

Twin Ring Motegi hosted 14 American open-wheel races between 1998 and 2011 with the last one being on the road course because of earthquake damage to the oval. While the oval has still not been fixed to suit for racing, the road course could host an INDYCAR race. The legendary Suzuka Circuit could be another option, also being owned by Honda.

With a Japanese star driver and a Japanese manufacturer, there is no better opportunity for INDYCAR to break through in Japan than there is now. Sato is 40 now and not getting any younger, though he should have some five good years left in the sport. And once Sato retires, maybe Honda will promote some Japanese talent to replace him.

The calendar slot would be the problem with a Japanese race. INDYCAR wants its overseas races in February or March before staying in North America from March for the rest of the season. However, that must not prevent a potential race in Japan. Most of the previous Motegi races took place in April so a race in Japan could bridge the gap between St. Petersburg and Long Beach.

Brazil is another foreign country that has shown fan interest in INDYCAR. Hélio Castroneves and Tony Kanaan have been the Brazilian heros in American open-wheel racing during the past two decades. While Castroneves has now left full-time INDYCAR racing for IMSA and also Kanaan is in the late stages of his career, the 2018 rookie Matheus Leist has already shown lots of promise in junior open-wheel series and may become Brazil's next INDYCAR star.

An INDYCAR race in Brazil could have some potential, though it would need the right promoter. Most lately, INDYCAR raced in São Paulo from 2010 to 2013 and was set to return to Brazil in Brasília in 2015 before local officials canceled the race. A race in Brazil could be the kind of an early-season race INDYCAR wants, though a reliable promoter and Brazilian representation in the Verizon IndyCar Series would be needed.

Australia has the longest overseas traditions of American open-wheel racing as Surfers Paradise hosted races annually for 18 years between 1991 and 2008. A tram line has made the old CART layout unsuitable for racing, though Virgin Australia Supercars is still racing there on a shortened layout. The shortened layout might not necessarily be too short for INDYCAR, however Supercars have taken over the race date and it's hard to see a street course with another racing event.

Australia might or might not be a good place for INDYCAR. Besides the tradition of hosting American open-wheel racing, Australia has a star driver in INDYCAR in the 2014 series champion Will Power. On the other hand, next year it will be a decade since Indy cars' last visit to Surfers. Australia has a strong local championship in Supercars and Australia's biggest racing star is the F1 driver Daniel Ricciardo. INDYCAR might have some potential in Australia but also face strong competition there.

Europe is F1 and MotoGP continent

Europe has lots of classic racing tracks and many people would like to see INDYCAR at some of the venues F1 has left. However, I'm skeptical about INDYCAR's prospects in Europe.

The European motorsports market is dominated by F1, MotoGP, and some local big events. INDYCAR doesn't get much exposure in the European media and I wouldn't expect a big crowd for an INDYCAR race in Europe.

Europe is no different from the rest of the world; INDYCAR would need a national hero in some European country to become big there. But it's so hard for an INDYCAR driver to become a national hero in Europe. Simon Pagenaud is the 2016 series champion but we couldn't see him getting the same reception in France that Indy 500 winner Sato got in Japan.

In Europe, it's hard for drivers to become stars in their countries unless they have success in F1. As long as INDYCAR doesn't get full-time drivers of the caliber of Nigel Mansell, it will not break through in Europe. Fernando Alonso's Indy 500 ambitions aren't enough to make the full series noted in the European media.

It would be hard to accommodate European races into the Verizon IndyCar Series schedule because most European venues don't come into question before April. INDYCAR needs to dedicate the summer for North American races instead of a time-consuming overseas trip, unless the country has lots of potential like Japan seemingly has.

INDYCAR doesn't need international races for the sake of being international. INDYCAR needs good race events. At the moment I can see more potential in the USA and Canada than overseas. The return to Road America and Gateway showed INDYCAR can attract a good crowd at the right venues. Overseas it's more difficult because of the minimal exposure INDYCAR gets there. Japan, Brazil, and Australia are very much the only overseas countries I'd look at.

INDYCAR doesn't need Circuit of The Americas

Bobby Epstein, the president of the Circuit of The Americas, has expressed interest in hosting the Verizon IndyCar Series at the Austin venue. Currently COTA hosts the only American rounds of both Formula One and MotoGP as its major events.

Epstein told NBC Sports that finding a suitable date would be difficult, given the F1 date in October and the MotoGP date in April, and the Indy 500 ruling out a May date for INDYCAR at COTA.

While the Texan climate would be uncomfortably hot in the summer months, pairing INDYCAR with the Pirelli World Challenge in late March would seem logical, given the break in INDYCAR schedule then.

However, I don't think INDYCAR should go to COTA. The Texas Motor Speedway president Eddie Gossage has previously threatened to stop hosting INDYCAR if it adds a race at COTA. While objecting a race 220 miles south may be a bit unreasonable, INDYCAR should not risk its longest-standing active oval race outside Indianapolis with a race at COTA.

COTA is the most modern road course in the USA, completed in 2012 for the United States Grand Prix. The layout has been praised for its fast corners, elevation changes, and long straights offering passing opportunities. However, the paved runoffs have been problematic for enforcing the track limits as opposed to most American tracks with grass, gravel, or a barrier lining the track.

Despite COTA's first-class facilities and a praised layout, races apart from F1 and MotoGP have not drawn a big crowd; both IMSA and the FIA WEC will not return to COTA since their first appearances in 2013.

While the track may be great, I doubt COTA would be a good addition to the INDYCAR schedule. It would be like the NASCAR venues where INDYCAR has races, except that it would be an F1 venue instead of a NASCAR venue. Either way, INDYCAR would be a secondary event.

INDYCAR struggles to draw a good crowd at venues hosting also NASCAR. If there's an event the casual fans want to attend, it's the NASCAR Cup race for most of them, not the INDYCAR race. COTA doesn't have NASCAR but it has its own big event, the U.S. Grand Prix. Being one of only three F1 races in North America, it draws fans from all over the country. The poor attendance for the now-discontinued sportscar races implies neither INDYCAR would draw a big crowd at COTA.

While INDYCAR would not be the main event at COTA, it's neither the main event at TMS which has two NASCAR Cup races. The attendance at TMS has not been great in the recent years, although the huge grandstands also make it look even worse. However, INDYCAR needs ovals. While road courses generally have a higher attendance, ovals offer more attractive racing for the TV audience. In 2017, the TMS race was the most-viewed live INDYCAR telecast on NBCSN in the 18-49 age group and another oval race, Pocono, was the most-viewed live INDYCAR telecast on NBCSN in total audience.

I see no reasons to assume COTA would be a better venue for INDYCAR than TMS is. Even if TMS allowed INDYCAR to race at COTA, I'm not sure COTA would be a great addition to the schedule.

INDYCAR is only a secondary event at NASCAR or F1 venues, INDYCAR needs to find markets where it's the biggest racing event, no matter if the venues are ovals or road or street courses. St. Louis is an example of that as INDYCAR's return to Gateway Motorsports Park had a great attendance. The return to Portland in 2018 has potential for the same, given no major racing series has races in the Pacific Northwest. The rumored Nashville street race might also have some potential for INDYCAR, given the closest NASCAR venues are over 200 miles from Nashville.

INDYCAR needs to find growth in new markets. Once it gains mainstream popularity, it will be easier to draw a crowd at venues where NASCAR or F1 is the biggest event.

Mexico City has more potential than COTA

While the addition of COTA doesn't seem very likely in the near future, INDYCAR may still have a race at an F1 venue already next year if Mexico City is added to the 2018 schedule.

While INDYCAR would be a secondary event to F1 also in Mexico City, I think it would be a bigger event there than at COTA. While the USA has 16 INDYCAR races, Mexico would have only one, and it would be the first Indy car race in Mexico since the final Champ Car season in 2007.

If INDYCAR returned to Mexico, there would also probably be Mexican representation in the grid. Although Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez already hosts Formula One and Formula E as its major events, I believe INDYCAR's return would be such a special occasion that it would draw a good crowd.

On the other hand, INDYCAR at COTA would be nothing special. INDYCAR needs to concentrate on markets where its races are special events.