How do other series compare against NASCAR's TV audience?

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is the leading motorsports series in the American television and the only series averaging over two million viewers. The only non-NASCAR race in the same territory of viewership is the Indianapolis 500, attracting an audience above the average of the NASCAR Cup Series but still less the half of that of NASCAR's flagship race, the Daytona 500.

NASCAR Cup Series and Indy 500 viewership. Click to enlarge.

I have excluded the Daytona 500 from Fox's Cup Series average because it has almost twice the audience of the second-most-viewed Cup race. Still, Fox's NASCAR coverage has more viewers than NBC's, both over-the-air and on cable.

Fox carries momentum from Daytona during the early season and a declining viewership during the season is a trend in NASCAR's TV ratings. Half of the NBC portion of the NASCAR season takes place once the football season has started, hurting NBC's ratings. Although the playoffs were introduced to create excitement into the late season clashing with football, the playoff races' ratings are still down on the summer races on NBC and NBCSN.

The overall trend was NASCAR's TV ratings going down. The average audience for the over-the-air telecasts on Fox was down 7 percent (including Daytona) and on NBC down 6 percent on 2016. On cable, the average audience was down 11 percent on both FS1 and NBCSN.

Comparable averages, different characteristics for INDYCAR, F1, NHRA audience

Not only the Monster Energy Cup Series is the most-viewed motorsports series in American television but also the Xfinity Series gets more viewers than any non-NASCAR series. I have split the Camping World Truck Series on FS1 into spring and fall parts to make it comparable with the other two NASCAR series where the season is split between Fox in the spring and NBC in the fall. The spring and fall averages of the Truck Series showcase the momentum NASCAR has after the Daytona Speedweeks and the struggle during the football season.

Xfinity, Trucks, INDYCAR, F1, and NHRA OTA audience.

Xfinity, Trucks, INDYCAR, F1, and NHRA cable audience.

The two open-wheel categories, INDYCAR and Formula One, are natural rivals, although they also complement each other and have a somewhat overlapping fanbase.

On free-to-air channels, the Verizon IndyCar Series races outside the 500 were usually in the same territory with F1 in TV ratings. However, 2017 was a bad year for INDYCAR on ABC with a 16-percent decline in the audience (excluding the Indy 500 and its qualifications). F1 on NBC has been split into two in the diagram above because the NFL usually hurts the fall races' audience. Still, the U.S. Grand Prix had 1.0 million viewers, up 45 percent from 2016, while the Mexican GP the following week had 825 thousand viewers, only marginally above the 2016 audience.

On cable, INDYCAR attracts slightly more viewers than F1. There are certain different characteristics in the viewership of those two series. While F1 consistently draws an audience between 500 and 600 thousand viewers for almost all the races in the European time zones, INDYCAR's audience varies more from race to race.

INDYCAR's viewership peaks between June and the end of August. That's a period when three major leagues, NFL, NBA, and NHL, are having the offseason. INDYCAR's higher peak of audience may be because it's more familiar of a series for the American audience plus afternoon races attract more casual viewers than F1 races in early Sunday morning.

On the other hand, apart from some Asian races in the middle of the night, F1 hardly ever gets as low TV ratings as INDYCAR sometimes gets. Maybe F1 has a more dedicated fanbase in the USA than INDYCAR's. Also, F1 races early in the morning don't usually clash with other major sports events.

I have split NHRA on FS1 into spring and fall averages because of the big difference in viewership. Until June, most NHRA races are shown tape-delayed after the NASCAR Cup race. The NASCAR lead-in allowed NHRA to attract the biggest cable audience for a non-NASCAR series and also above the NASCAR Trucks' audience. On the other hand, the viewership drops to under half of the early season once NHRA on FS1 goes opposite to NASCAR on NBC's channels and the NFL starts in September.

NHRA was the only series showing growth both over-the-air and on cable in 2017, although it was minimal. On Fox, NHRA's OTA audience was comparable to that of INDYCAR's.

Formula One has the youngest audience

Unsurprisingly the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is the leading motorsports series also in the 18-49 age group, and the Daytona 500 is clearly the most-viewed race also in that age group. However, the decline the 18-49 audience is even more rapid than in the total audience. The average 18-49 audience for the over-the-air telecasts on Fox was down 12 percent (including Daytona) and on NBC down 18 percent on 2016. On cable, the the decline was even more drastic with the average 18-49 audience down 18 percent on FS1 and 24 percent on NBCSN.

NASCAR Cup Series and Indy 500 viewership in the 18-49 age group.

If the Indy 500 attracted just under half of the total audience of the Daytona 500, the gap is even bigger in the 18-49 age group where Indy attracts only one third of Daytona's 18-49 audience. The age structure of the NASCAR Cup Series' fanbase looks slightly better than INDYCAR's: the 18-49 age group makes up 25 percent of the Cup Series' total audience during the season, for INDYCAR it's 22 percent. And while the Daytona 500 attracts young people more than other races with the 18-49 audience making up 30 percent of the total audience, for the Indy 500 it's only 22 percent. INDYCAR is struggling to attract younger generations as the viewership also for other races shows.

Xfinity, Trucks, INDYCAR, F1, and NHRA OTA audience in the 18-49 group.

Xfinity, Trucks, INDYCAR, F1, and NHRA cable audience in the 18-49 group.

If INDYCAR's total audience outside the 500 has been comparable to F1's audience, that's not the case in the 18-49 age group. INDYCAR lost 25 percent of its 18-49 audience on ABC in 2017, making it the least-viewed series on OTA channels in that age group. Despite the overall growth of the audience on NBCSN, INDYCAR also lost cable audience in the 18-49 group.

F1 has a positive outlook in America. It may be a niche sport in the USA but it has a young audience with the 18-49 age group making up 31 percent of the total audience. The Monaco and Canadian Grands Prix already averaged above the NASCAR Xfinity Series on OTA channels in 18-49 audience and F1 on NBCSN was in the territory of the Truck Series' viewership.

NHRA's viewership in the 18-49 age group drops more drastically when it loses the NASCAR lead-in on FS1. The 18-49 group makes up 24 percent of the total audience of the spring races on FS1 whereas they make up only 20 percent in the fall. That implies the younger audience are more of casual viewers that stay on the channel after the NASCAR race.

While a few series showed increased 18-49 viewership on the OTA networks, all series' cable viewership decreased in the 18-49 group. Cord cutting may be behind the decreased 18-49 cable viewership. Young adults don't want to pay for channels they don't have time to watch because of family and work reasons. If anything, they opt for streaming services they can watch on mobile devices wherever they are, and whenever they want, thanks to video-on-demand.

INDYCAR and F1 battling for the leading open-wheel series' status

NASCAR has been America's leading motorsport in the 00s and 10s, however it's losing fans as its star drivers are retiring and the racing is not as good as it used to be. And while the NASCAR management is trying to make the sport more exciting, the rule changes are dividing the fanbase and driving some fans away. Still, I don't expect any series to challenge NASCAR's leading position in America any time soon, so big is NASCAR's fanbase.

F1 has a positive outlook in America. While it's been losing viewership worldwide this decade, it's been growing in the USA and it has the youngest fanbase of major motorsports in the USA. Younger generations are more open towards global, traditionally non-American sports like soccer or Formula One, and the Internet allows them to follow the news even if the sport is not mainstream in the USA.

F1 will not be a direct rival for NASCAR, they are two totally different categories. NASCAR is as American as it gets, F1 is global. The two categories have a different target audience. And even though the American owners of F1 want to expand F1's footprint in the USA and add races there, most of the races will still take place in Europe or Asia in difficult time zones for the American audience.

F1 will face a challenge in the USA next year as it moves from NBC to ESPN. On NBC F1 was cross-promoted with the group's INDYCAR and NASCAR coverage, for ESPN the only motorsports programming is the five INDYCAR races on ABC. INDYCAR's decreasing viewership on ABC as opposed to the solid ratings on NBCSN does not look too promising F1 on ESPN.

INDYCAR has been trying to get back the fans it lost during its split years, and it has succeeded in growing its cable audience during the last few years. Still, it's been more about growing its core audience. The OTA audience, especially for the 500, has been down, implying INDYCAR struggles to attract casual viewers.

INDYCAR has an old fanbase, partly because the split years cost it younger generations. Attracting young fans is the most important thing for INDYCAR's future. If the current 18-49 viewership translates into the future overall viewership, INDYCAR will no longer be the leading alternative to NASCAR but a second-tier open-wheel series to F1 even in the American media. INDYCAR needs to outperform its rivals in social media and other media that young people consume.

There is no easy way to improve TV ratings, apart from a better TV deal and avoiding bad time slots. INDYCAR already has an on-track product second to none. Although I'm writing about the TV ratings, I think it's the live race experience that can drive up INDYCAR's popularity. INDYCAR needs more events like Long Beach, Road America, Gateway, and of course the 500; well-attended events that are more than races and can become known nationwide. INDYCAR currently lacks a bit of the feel of a major series; well-attended events would give it the impression of something big.

It would be especially great for INDYCAR if there were more oval races. Ovals offer a product that could appeal also to NASCAR fans and offer the kind of thrill that even F1, the pinnacle of motorsports, lacks.

I think INDYCAR with its US-centered schedule has more potential than F1 to become truly mainstream in the States. Then again, if the younger generations choose F1 over INDYCAR and NASCAR remains relatively popular, then there may be no space for INDYCAR as a high-profile series outside the 500.

Numbers via Awful Announcing, Showbuzz Daily, and Sports Media Watch.

The numbers don't include streaming services, thus may differ from the numbers announced by the broadcasters. Rain-delayed races excluded from averages if delayed until Monday. Tape delays included besides live telecasts for races shown live on a secondary channel (e.g. CNBC) and F1 races shown live before 8am.

Single-race finale should not decide NASCAR championships

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series concludes this weekend with the Ford EcoBoost 400 championship race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The single race determines the top-four positions between Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick, with the highest finishing of those drivers winning the Cup Series championship.

I am not a huge fan of the NASCAR playoffs as I think they undermine the credibility of the championship. I'd like NASCAR to get rid of the playoffs, or at least not determine the championship in a single race.

Below are the 2017 championship standings leading to Homestead-Miami under some alternative scoring systems, and for comparison the same for 2016. The systems I have used are:

1. Full-season points with no playoffs.
2. 10-race "Chase" between the 16 drivers qualified for the playoffs. The same bonus points are added to the reset points as were added to the reset points in the Round of 16 in that year's playoffs.
3. A playoff format where the Championship 4 carry points from the Round of 8 into the final race. Like in earlier rounds, you advance (win the title) if you win the race, otherwise points will decide.

2017:

If NASCAR had no postseason format and the championship was awarded based on total points, Martin Truex Jr. would have secured the 2017 Cup Series championship after Texas with two races remaining.

A 10-race "Chase" with a points reset before the last ten races would have made the championship somewhat closer, though the championship would still have been decided before the final race as Truex would have secured the title in the penultimate race of the season at Phoenix.

If the points were carried from the Round of 8 but you could win the championship by winning the final race, the championship would be open by definition. Truex would lead the championship by 53 points to Kyle Busch, 57 points to Kevin Harvick, and 80 points to Brad Keselowski. Harvick and Keselowski would need to win at Homestead-Miami to win the championship. Busch could, in theory, win the championship by winning the Stages 1 and 2 and finishing the race in second place, though only if Truex failed to score more than one point.

2016:

If the 2016 season had no Chase, Kevin Harvick would have entered the season finale leading his title rivals Joey Logano by 25 points and Brad Keselowski by 37 points. Harvick would eventually have won the championship by 27 points to Logano whereas Kyle Busch would have beaten Keselowski for the third place. The actual champion Jimmie Johnson would have finished the season eighth in the full-season points.

A 10-race "Chase" with no playoffs would have resulted in a five-way battle for the championship at Homestead-Miami. Kyle Busch would have led Joey Logano by seven points and Matt Kenseth by 26 points. Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson would have had an outside chance, 34 and 39 points, respectively, behind Busch. Eventually, Busch would have won the championship by five points over Logano whereas Matt Kenseth would have beaten Hamlin and Johnson for the third place.

If the Championship 4 had continued from the Round of 8 points in the season finale, Logano would have been leading Kyle Busch by five points. Johnson, 40 points behind, and Carl Edwards, 47 points behind would have been in a must-win situation. As Johnson won at Homestead-Miami, he would have won the championship also in this scenario, though beating other playoff contenders wouldn't have been enough had some non-playoff driver won the race.

Conclusion: Exciting championship doesn't need single-race finale

I think the 2016 season shows NASCAR doesn't need the controversial single-race finish to the championship. Even with the full-season points most championships would go into the final race; before this season 2011 would've been the last time when the title battle would've been mathematically over before the final race. If anything, 2017 has been an exceptional season from Truex and Furniture Row Racing. It wouldn't be the championship format's fault if he was already the champion, the others just haven't been good enough.

That being said, I'd be fine with a 10-race Chase for the Cup like it used to be. Ten races is enough to determine who is the best of the title contenders. There would be enough time to recover from some bad luck, though it would still be an intense title battle.

But I'm starting to dislike the playoffs more and more each year. Playoffs belong to team sports where the teams are divided in multiple conferences and divisions and you need to determine the league champion. The single-race championship finale is what I dislike the most about the playoffs, it's like a single-game Stanley Cup Final after the best-of-seven series in earlier rounds.

However, the NASCAR management seems to embrace the playoffs. Unfortunately, in my opinion. At least this year's format has rewarded success over the full season as the playoff points from the regular season and earlier playoffs rounds are carried throughout the playoffs. But a single race for the title is still a flaw of the format, it undermines the credibility of the championship as an award for the best season.

If the playoffs are in NASCAR to stay, at least I wish the championship would be decided by points unless none of the title contenders win the championship race. If you continued from the Round of 8 points, the championship round would basically be a four-race series for the title unless somebody wins the final race.

Time for NASCAR to scrap the playoffs

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are well underway as only eight contenders remain for the championship, though I am getting fed up with the playoff implications taking the center stage in the fall races. I have tried to be open-minded about the playoffs, though I just dislike them more and more every year. I would just like to enjoy the races and let the championship unfold naturally without the playoffs.

Kyle Larson, one of only three drivers to win at least four races, not advancing into the round of eight questions the rationality of the playoff format. Martin Truex Jr. has arguably been the best driver of the season and it would feel so wrong if he had one bad race in the playoffs that cost him the title.

The playoffs are just a wrong way to decide the championship. After 35 races, the championship should not come down to which of the four contenders finishes highest in the final race, regardless of their record leading into it.

Even the three-race playoff rounds are too short to determine which drivers will advance. While the playoffs make the championship battle more unpredictable, fans want to see the four best drivers racing for the title in the championship finale. The playoffs don't guarantee that.

NASCAR is suffering from a declining viewership and tries to create excitement with the playoff format. Yet despite all the rule changes for this year, NASCAR's TV ratings have continued to decline. It's time for NASCAR to do away with the gimmicks and make the racing exciting again. The gimmicks only make NASCAR a laughing stock; it's good racing that people want to see.

The playoff format undermines the credibility of the NASCAR championship. The championship should show who was the best driver of the season; with the playoffs that's questionable. I'd prefer a simple full-season championship format, though I'd be fine even with a return to the original 10-race 10-driver Chase for the Cup; 10 races is enough to determine the champion.

As a more radical idea, I'd award the championship to the driver with most wins. In most seasons, the drivers with most wins are separated by only one or two wins and the championship would remain open until the last two races. While it might not reward consistency, I think winning is what racing is all about. The driver who has won most races has done the best job.

The big problem of NASCAR is the on-track product and you can't fix it with the playoffs. NASCAR needs cars that race well. More power, less grip should mean better racing. Make the cars less sensitive aerodynamically to allow closer racing. And add power to make the cars more difficult to drive.

Sometimes I wonder if NASCAR is even worth watching. It's one of the greatest racing series in the world and has some great talent among its drivers. Yet bad racing and an artificial championship format are making it a travesty of a great series. I hope NASCAR can fix itself, though I'm afraid the solutions the management will come up with will only make it worse. I'm not sure how long I want to watch that.

The flaws of the NASCAR Chase for the Sprint Cup

Now I'm writing about a series I am not so familiar with. NASCAR, I mean. But I'll write anyway, sometimes it's easier for an outsider to see flaws (or an outsider just can't see why they really aren't flaws).

The Chase for the Sprint Cup will get its conclusion next Sunday at Homestead-Miami. Or should I rather call it the Sprint for the Chase Cup as after 26 races, the title is decided in the last ten races. Anyway, I spotted this interesting statistic:

Qualified for the Championship round:
Logano - 5 wins - 15 times in top 5
Harvick - 4 wins - 13 times in top 5
Hamlin - 1 wins - 7 times in top 5
Newman - 0 wins - 4 times in top 5

Eliminated after the Eliminator round:
Keselowski - 6 wins - 16 times in top 5
Gordon - 4 wins - 14 times in top 5
Edwards - 2 wins - 7 times in top 5
Kenseth - 0 wins - 13 times in top 5

So, it seems like the eliminated drivers form a stronger lineup than the Championship round lineup. I think that highlights the biggest flaw of the current Chase system. It's just crazy that after 26 races, the advancing drivers are decided in three-race elimination rounds, and in the end, the title is decided in one race. I'm not saying the Chase is a bad system; I rather think it could be a great system. Extending the title battle to the last race and eliminating four drivers after every third race makes the end of the season exciting and keeps the title battle more open. It may not be the fairest system but it's balancing between having a fair and an entertaining system. That's why team sports have the playoffs and so has the PGA Tour, too, and those systems work.

I think the Chase system should reward the entire season's success more. Somebody with Gordon's season shouldn't be out of the title contention while Newman is in the final four with no wins. So, instead of resetting all drivers' points to the same amount between the elimination rounds, don't reset them or reset them so that the best drivers of the season have a significant advantage but even the last qualifier has a chance to win the title.

Also, I don't like how the title is decided in the final race. While winning the title by finishing 7th with even 11th place being enough while the main rival wins would be anticlimatic, winning the title just by finishing ahead of the other contenders doesn't feel right if they've had a better season until then. Have it like in the previous elimination rounds, you're through if you win, otherwise points decide.

So basically, give more importance for the entire season's performances. For example, don't reset the points but allow advancing to the next elimination round and winning the title by winning a race if a driver doesn't otherwise have enough points for that. That kind of a system would reward having a great season but would also reward winning.