Single-race finale should not decide NASCAR championships

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series concludes this weekend with the Ford EcoBoost 400 championship race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The single race determines the top-four positions between Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick, with the highest finishing of those drivers winning the Cup Series championship.

I am not a huge fan of the NASCAR playoffs as I think they undermine the credibility of the championship. I'd like NASCAR to get rid of the playoffs, or at least not determine the championship in a single race.

Below are the 2017 championship standings leading to Homestead-Miami under some alternative scoring systems, and for comparison the same for 2016. The systems I have used are:

1. Full-season points with no playoffs.
2. 10-race "Chase" between the 16 drivers qualified for the playoffs. The same bonus points are added to the reset points as were added to the reset points in the Round of 16 in that year's playoffs.
3. A playoff format where the Championship 4 carry points from the Round of 8 into the final race. Like in earlier rounds, you advance (win the title) if you win the race, otherwise points will decide.

2017:

If NASCAR had no postseason format and the championship was awarded based on total points, Martin Truex Jr. would have secured the 2017 Cup Series championship after Texas with two races remaining.

A 10-race "Chase" with a points reset before the last ten races would have made the championship somewhat closer, though the championship would still have been decided before the final race as Truex would have secured the title in the penultimate race of the season at Phoenix.

If the points were carried from the Round of 8 but you could win the championship by winning the final race, the championship would be open by definition. Truex would lead the championship by 53 points to Kyle Busch, 57 points to Kevin Harvick, and 80 points to Brad Keselowski. Harvick and Keselowski would need to win at Homestead-Miami to win the championship. Busch could, in theory, win the championship by winning the Stages 1 and 2 and finishing the race in second place, though only if Truex failed to score more than one point.

2016:

If the 2016 season had no Chase, Kevin Harvick would have entered the season finale leading his title rivals Joey Logano by 25 points and Brad Keselowski by 37 points. Harvick would eventually have won the championship by 27 points to Logano whereas Kyle Busch would have beaten Keselowski for the third place. The actual champion Jimmie Johnson would have finished the season eighth in the full-season points.

A 10-race "Chase" with no playoffs would have resulted in a five-way battle for the championship at Homestead-Miami. Kyle Busch would have led Joey Logano by seven points and Matt Kenseth by 26 points. Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson would have had an outside chance, 34 and 39 points, respectively, behind Busch. Eventually, Busch would have won the championship by five points over Logano whereas Matt Kenseth would have beaten Hamlin and Johnson for the third place.

If the Championship 4 had continued from the Round of 8 points in the season finale, Logano would have been leading Kyle Busch by five points. Johnson, 40 points behind, and Carl Edwards, 47 points behind would have been in a must-win situation. As Johnson won at Homestead-Miami, he would have won the championship also in this scenario, though beating other playoff contenders wouldn't have been enough had some non-playoff driver won the race.

Conclusion: Exciting championship doesn't need single-race finale

I think the 2016 season shows NASCAR doesn't need the controversial single-race finish to the championship. Even with the full-season points most championships would go into the final race; before this season 2011 would've been the last time when the title battle would've been mathematically over before the final race. If anything, 2017 has been an exceptional season from Truex and Furniture Row Racing. It wouldn't be the championship format's fault if he was already the champion, the others just haven't been good enough.

That being said, I'd be fine with a 10-race Chase for the Cup like it used to be. Ten races is enough to determine who is the best of the title contenders. There would be enough time to recover from some bad luck, though it would still be an intense title battle.

But I'm starting to dislike the playoffs more and more each year. Playoffs belong to team sports where the teams are divided in multiple conferences and divisions and you need to determine the league champion. The single-race championship finale is what I dislike the most about the playoffs, it's like a single-game Stanley Cup Final after the best-of-seven series in earlier rounds.

However, the NASCAR management seems to embrace the playoffs. Unfortunately, in my opinion. At least this year's format has rewarded success over the full season as the playoff points from the regular season and earlier playoffs rounds are carried throughout the playoffs. But a single race for the title is still a flaw of the format, it undermines the credibility of the championship as an award for the best season.

If the playoffs are in NASCAR to stay, at least I wish the championship would be decided by points unless none of the title contenders win the championship race. If you continued from the Round of 8 points, the championship round would basically be a four-race series for the title unless somebody wins the final race.